Football · Argentina Cup · 17/07, 02:45
Prediction: Sarmiento vs Boca Juniors
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.28Total
Sarmiento0.79
Boca Juniors1.49
1X2
Sarmiento
Draw
Boca Juniors
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Sarmiento
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Boca Juniors
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sarmiento
1–1–4
Boca Juniors
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sarmiento 1499 · Boca Juniors 1528
| Sarmiento | Draw | Boca Juniors | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 29% | 53% |
| Market | 21% | 24% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Boca Juniors: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sarmiento | Boca Juniors | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2.9 | 2.6 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.4 | 5.7 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarmiento 1–1–4 Boca Juniors
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Boca Juniors |
| 01/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sarmiento |
| 27/08/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Boca Juniors |
| 03/07/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Sarmiento |
| 12/10/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Boca Juniors |
| 20/11/21 Argentina Liga Profesional | Boca Juniors | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sarmiento |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sarmiento
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 20/04 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 13/04 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 09/04 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/04 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 22/03 | CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 15/03 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 11/03 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 03/03 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
Boca Juniors
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Athletico Paranaense America Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Universidad Catolica Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 20/05 | Cruzeiro Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 17 | 7 | D |
| 06/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 11 | L |
| 02/05 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 29/04 | Cruzeiro Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 24/04 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 11 | W |
| 15/04 | Barcelona Guayaquil Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sarmiento vs Boca Juniors?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Boca Juniors win (54%). Probabilities: Sarmiento 20%, draw 26%, Boca Juniors 54%.
How many goals are expected in Sarmiento vs Boca Juniors?
The model expects 2.28 goals (Sarmiento 0.79 · Boca Juniors 1.49), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sarmiento vs Boca Juniors?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.