Football · Argentina Cup · 16/07, 23:45
Prediction: Racing Club vs Defensa y Justicia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.66Total
Racing Club1.57
Defensa y Justicia1.09
1X2
Racing Club
Draw
Defensa y Justicia
Markets
Over 2.25 goals 55%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1Most likely total: 2 goals
Recent form · 10 last
Racing Club
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Defensa y Justicia
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Racing Club
3–3–0
Defensa y Justicia
(6 last)
47%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Racing Club 1512 · Defensa y Justicia 1456
| Racing Club | Draw | Defensa y Justicia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 47% | 29% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Expected goals2.66Racing Club 1.57 · Defensa y Justicia 1.09
Over / Under 2.25Over 2.25 · 55%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Racing Club (rating 1512 vs 1456).
- H2H favours Racing Club: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Racing Club | Defensa y Justicia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.4 | 2.1 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.5 | 3.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Racing Club 3–3–0 Defensa y Justicia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Racing Club | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Defensa y Justicia |
| 29/04/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Racing Club |
| 19/10/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Racing Club | 4-3 HT 3-0 | Defensa y Justicia |
| 16/03/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Racing Club | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Defensa y Justicia |
| 02/11/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Racing Club |
| 28/05/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Racing Club |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Racing Club
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05 | Independiente Petrolero Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Caracas Copa Sudamericana |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 07/05 | Botafogo Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 30/04 | Caracas Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 16/04 | Botafogo Copa Sudamericana |
1-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 6 | L |
Defensa y Justicia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/04 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 07/04 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/04 | CA Chaco For Ever Argentina Cup |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/03 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 16/03 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 5-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 12/03 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 02/03 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Racing Club vs Defensa y Justicia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Racing Club win (47%). Probabilities: Racing Club 47%, draw 28%, Defensa y Justicia 25%.
How many goals are expected in Racing Club vs Defensa y Justicia?
The model expects 2.66 goals (Racing Club 1.57 · Defensa y Justicia 1.09), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Racing Club vs Defensa y Justicia?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.