Football · Colombia Primera A · 17/09, 03:20
Prediction: Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional Medellin
Team pages: Internacional de Bogota · Atletico Nacional Medellin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
Internacional de Bogota1.14
Atletico Nacional Medellin1.7
1X2
Internacional de Bogota
Draw
Atletico Nacional Medellin
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Internacional de Bogota
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Atletico Nacional Medellin
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Internacional de Bogota
0–3
Atletico Nacional Medellin
(3 last)
- Atletico Nacional Medellin7-1Internacional de Bogota
- Internacional de Bogota1-2Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin3-0Internacional de Bogota
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Internacional de Bogota 1506 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1630
| Internacional de Bogota | Draw | Atletico Nacional Medellin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 26% | 49% |
| Market | 24% | 28% | 48% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1506 vs 1630).
- H2H favours Atletico Nacional Medellin: 3-0-0.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Internacional de Bogota | Atletico Nacional Medellin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.9 | 1.9 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 5.8 | 3.3 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional de Bogota 0–0–3 Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 7-1 HT 2-1 | Internacional de Bogota |
| 09/05/26 Colombia Primera A | Internacional de Bogota | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 22/03/26 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Internacional de Bogota |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 20 |
| 2 | Millonarios | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| 8 | Deportivo Cali | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| 9 | Llaneros | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 10 | Internacional de Bogota | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Aguilas Doradas | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 12 | Once Caldas | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| 13 | Cucuta Deportivo | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 9 |
| 14 | Fortaleza CEIF | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| 15 | Boyaca Chico | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 8 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 6 |
| 18 | Alianza | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
| 19 | Junior | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 3 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Internacional de Bogota | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
|---|---|---|
| Aguilas Doradas | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Deportivo Cali | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Deportes Tolima | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Jaguares de Cordoba | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| America de Cali | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Internacional de Bogota
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
2-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 31/08 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 28/08 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 24/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 20/08 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 10 | D |
| 09/08 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 06/08 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 1-7 | 3 | 1 | L |
Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
3-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/08 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 23/08 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 10/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 09/06 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 03/06 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 24/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Nacional Medellin win (49%). Probabilities: Internacional de Bogota 24%, draw 27%, Atletico Nacional Medellin 49%.
How many goals are expected in Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Internacional de Bogota 1.14 · Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.7), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional Medellin?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.