Football · Japan Women Empowerment League · 17/10, 06:00
Prediction: Albirex Niigata (W) vs AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
Team pages: Albirex Niigata (W) · AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Albirex Niigata (W)1.98
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)0.8
1X2
Albirex Niigata (W)
Draw
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Albirex Niigata (W)
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Albirex Niigata (W)
5–1–0
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
(6 last)
- Albirex Niigata (W)2-2AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
- AC Nagano Parceiro (W)0-2Albirex Niigata (W)
- Albirex Niigata (W)2-1AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
- AC Nagano Parceiro (W)1-2Albirex Niigata (W)
- Albirex Niigata (W)4-1AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
- AC Nagano Parceiro (W)1-4Albirex Niigata (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Albirex Niigata (W) 1466 · AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 1378
| Albirex Niigata (W) | Draw | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Market | 64% | 22% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Albirex Niigata (W) (rating 1466 vs 1378).
- H2H favours Albirex Niigata (W): 5-1-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Albirex Niigata (W) | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.6 | 2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.1 / 0 | 1.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Albirex Niigata (W) 5–1–0 AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 Japan Women Empowerment League | Albirex Niigata (W) | 2-2 HT 0-1 | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) |
| 09/08/25 Japan Women Empowerment League | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Albirex Niigata (W) |
| 27/04/25 Japan Women Empowerment League | Albirex Niigata (W) | 2-1 HT 0-0 | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) |
| 15/09/24 Japan Women Empowerment League | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Albirex Niigata (W) |
| 21/04/24 Japan Women Empowerment League | Albirex Niigata (W) | 4-1 HT 3-0 | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) |
| 17/12/23 Japan Cup Women | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Albirex Niigata (W) |
Standings · Japan Women Empowerment League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Urawa Red Diamonds (W) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | INAC Leonessa (W) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
| 3 | Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Albirex Niigata (W) | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | JEF Utd Chiba (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 9 | Mynavi Sendai (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 10 | Omiya Ardija (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 12 | Nojima (W) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Albirex Niigata (W) | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Mynavi Sendai (W) | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Cerezo Osaka (W) | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) | 1-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Nojima (W) | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) | 1-1 D | 1-5 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Albirex Niigata (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Albirex Niigata (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 30/08 | Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 23/08 | Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 16/05 | Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 26/04 | Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 05/04 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 28/03 | AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 21/02 | Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 0 | 0 | W |
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 02/09 | INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 29/08 | Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 23/08 | Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 04/04 | Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 28/03 | Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Albirex Niigata (W) vs AC Nagano Parceiro (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Albirex Niigata (W) win (64%). Probabilities: Albirex Niigata (W) 64%, draw 22%, AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 14%.
How many goals are expected in Albirex Niigata (W) vs AC Nagano Parceiro (W)?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Albirex Niigata (W) 1.98 · AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 0.8), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Albirex Niigata (W) vs AC Nagano Parceiro (W)?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.