Football · Japan Women Empowerment League · 23/08, 11:00

Prediction: Cerezo Osaka (W) vs Albirex Niigata (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Cerezo Osaka (W)1.13

Albirex Niigata (W)1.13

1X2

35% 30% 35%

Cerezo Osaka (W) Draw Albirex Niigata (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cerezo Osaka (W) 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLDLLWDD

Albirex Niigata (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDDWDLL

Head-to-head

Cerezo Osaka (W) 2–1–3 Albirex Niigata (W) (6 last)

Albirex Niigata (W)0-1Cerezo Osaka (W)
Cerezo Osaka (W)1-3Albirex Niigata (W)
Cerezo Osaka (W)2-1Albirex Niigata (W)
Albirex Niigata (W)3-1Cerezo Osaka (W)
Cerezo Osaka (W)1-2Albirex Niigata (W)
Albirex Niigata (W)0-0Cerezo Osaka (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cerezo Osaka (W) 1479 · Albirex Niigata (W) 1502

	Cerezo Osaka (W)	Draw	Albirex Niigata (W)
Our model	34%	31%	34%
Market	36%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Albirex Niigata (W): 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cerezo Osaka (W)	Albirex Niigata (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/22/56%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.6	1.3 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.10

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 22.05

Under 21.75

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.72 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +6’	2.50	3.10	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:26 +4’	2.72	2.91	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerezo Osaka (W) 2–1–3 Albirex Niigata (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Japan League Cup Women	Albirex Niigata (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Cerezo Osaka (W)
21/02/26 Japan Women Empowerment League	Cerezo Osaka (W)	1-3 HT 1-2	Albirex Niigata (W)
30/11/25 Japan League Cup Women	Cerezo Osaka (W)	2-1 HT 0-1	Albirex Niigata (W)
20/09/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Albirex Niigata (W)	3-1 HT 1-1	Cerezo Osaka (W)
02/03/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Cerezo Osaka (W)	1-2 HT 0-0	Albirex Niigata (W)
21/09/24 Japan Women Empowerment League	Albirex Niigata (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Cerezo Osaka (W)

Standings · Japan Women Empowerment League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Albirex Niigata (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerezo Osaka (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	INAC Leonessa (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mynavi Sendai (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nojima (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Omiya Ardija (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Urawa Red Diamonds (W)	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cerezo Osaka (W)	Albirex Niigata (W)
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	1-1 D	2-2 D
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	0-0 D	1-1 D
JEF Utd Chiba (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Nojima (W)	0-3 L	0-2 L
Urawa Red Diamonds (W)	2-3 L	1-3 L
Omiya Ardija (W)	0-1 L	0-0 D
INAC Leonessa (W)	2-2 D	1-0 W
Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Albirex Niigata (W) (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cerezo Osaka (W)

WDLLDLLWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-1	0	3	D
10/05	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
03/05	JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
26/04	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
04/04	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	–	2-3	–	–	L
28/03	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	9	1	D
21/02	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-2	1-3	3	0	L
15/02	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
20/12	INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-2	2-2	7	1	D
09/11	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-0	6	0	W

Albirex Niigata (W)

WLWWDDWDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
09/05	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
02/05	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
26/04	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	2-1	9	1	W
05/04	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
28/03	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
21/02	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-1	3-1	0	0	W
15/02	INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
20/12	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
08/11	JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-0	0	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cerezo Osaka (W) vs Albirex Niigata (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerezo Osaka (W) win (35%). Probabilities: Cerezo Osaka (W) 35%, draw 30%, Albirex Niigata (W) 35%.

How many goals are expected in Cerezo Osaka (W) vs Albirex Niigata (W)?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Cerezo Osaka (W) 1.13 · Albirex Niigata (W) 1.13), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Cerezo Osaka (W) vs Albirex Niigata (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.