Football · Japan Women Empowerment League · 30/08, 11:00

Prediction: JEF Utd Chiba (W) vs Cerezo Osaka (W)

Team pages: JEF Utd Chiba (W) · Cerezo Osaka (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

JEF Utd Chiba (W)0.93

Cerezo Osaka (W)1.18

1X2

28% 31% 41%

JEF Utd Chiba (W) Draw Cerezo Osaka (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

JEF Utd Chiba (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLLDWL

Cerezo Osaka (W) 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDLLWDDD

Head-to-head

JEF Utd Chiba (W) 0–3–3 Cerezo Osaka (W) (6 last)

JEF Utd Chiba (W)0-1Cerezo Osaka (W)
Cerezo Osaka (W)3-0JEF Utd Chiba (W)
JEF Utd Chiba (W)0-0Cerezo Osaka (W)
Cerezo Osaka (W)1-1JEF Utd Chiba (W)
Cerezo Osaka (W)5-2JEF Utd Chiba (W)
JEF Utd Chiba (W)1-1Cerezo Osaka (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JEF Utd Chiba (W) 1467 · Cerezo Osaka (W) 1488

	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	Draw	Cerezo Osaka (W)
Our model	28%	32%	40%
Market	29%	30%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cerezo Osaka (W): 3-3-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	Cerezo Osaka (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.4	0.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	11/22/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.3	2.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	1.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.00

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.34 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.50 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.20

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:13 +12’	2.60	3.00	2.50
15:03 +49’	3.10▲	3.00	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:45 +8’	3.34	2.96	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · JEF Utd Chiba (W) 0–3–3 Cerezo Osaka (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Japan Women Empowerment League	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Cerezo Osaka (W)
12/10/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Cerezo Osaka (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	JEF Utd Chiba (W)
08/03/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Cerezo Osaka (W)
02/11/24 Japan Women Empowerment League	Cerezo Osaka (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	JEF Utd Chiba (W)
09/10/24 Japan League Cup Women	Cerezo Osaka (W)	5-2 HT 1-0	JEF Utd Chiba (W)
08/09/24 Japan League Cup Women	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Cerezo Osaka (W)

Standings · Japan Women Empowerment League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
3	INAC Leonessa (W)	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
3	Mynavi Sendai (W)	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
5	Nojima (W)	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
5	Urawa Red Diamonds (W)	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
7	Albirex Niigata (W)	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
7	Cerezo Osaka (W)	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
9	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
10	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
11	Omiya Ardija (W)	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
12	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	Cerezo Osaka (W)
Urawa Red Diamonds (W)	1-0 W	2-3 L
Omiya Ardija (W)	1-1 D	0-1 L
Mynavi Sendai (W)	1-0 W	0-0 D
INAC Leonessa (W)	0-4 L	2-2 D
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	0-3 L	0-0 D
Nojima (W)	2-2 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: JEF Utd Chiba (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JEF Utd Chiba (W)

WDLLWLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	1-2	2	1	L
16/05	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
10/05	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
03/05	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
25/04	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-1	1	0	L
05/04	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/03	INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-4	1	2	L
21/02	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-3	0-3	3	0	L
14/02	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-1	2-2	2	0	D
20/12	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-0	6	0	W

Cerezo Osaka (W)

DLLDLLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
16/05	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-1	0	3	D
10/05	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
03/05	JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
26/04	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
04/04	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	–	2-3	–	–	L
28/03	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	0-0	9	1	D
21/02	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-2	1-3	3	0	L
15/02	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-1	7	1	L
20/12	INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-2	2-2	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JEF Utd Chiba (W) vs Cerezo Osaka (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cerezo Osaka (W) win (41%). Probabilities: JEF Utd Chiba (W) 28%, draw 31%, Cerezo Osaka (W) 41%.

How many goals are expected in JEF Utd Chiba (W) vs Cerezo Osaka (W)?

The model expects 2.11 goals (JEF Utd Chiba (W) 0.93 · Cerezo Osaka (W) 1.18), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in JEF Utd Chiba (W) vs Cerezo Osaka (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.