Football · Japan Women Empowerment League · 02/09, 12:00

Prediction: INAC Leonessa (W) vs AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Team pages: INAC Leonessa (W) · AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

INAC Leonessa (W)2.58

AC Nagano Parceiro (W)0.71

1X2

77% 15% 8%

INAC Leonessa (W) Draw AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

INAC Leonessa (W) 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

INAC Leonessa (W) 5–1–0 AC Nagano Parceiro (W) (6 last)

INAC Leonessa (W)5-1AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)0-1INAC Leonessa (W)
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)0-3INAC Leonessa (W)
INAC Leonessa (W)3-2AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
INAC Leonessa (W)3-0AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)1-1INAC Leonessa (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · INAC Leonessa (W) 1563 · AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 1370

	INAC Leonessa (W)	Draw	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
Our model	77%	16%	7%
Market	77%	15%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours INAC Leonessa (W) (rating 1563 vs 1370).
H2H favours INAC Leonessa (W): 5-1-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	INAC Leonessa (W)	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.8	0.7 / 3.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.5 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	1.7 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	1.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.20

X6.25

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.95

2 (+2)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 11:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.13 → 1.20▲	Bet365 1.20
X	8.00 → 6.25▼	Pinn 6.94 ★
2	15.00 → 12.00▼	Pinn 12.98

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:20 +6’	1.13	8.00	15.00
03:08 +6’	1.18▲	6.50▼	13.00▼
07:50 +13’	1.20▲	6.25▼	12.00▼
09:59 +4’	1.18▼	6.50▲	12.00
11:04 +1’	1.20▲	6.25▼	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:08	1.15	6.91	12.82
22:31	1.15▼	7.04▲	13.15▲
08:01 +2’	1.15▲	6.98▼	12.99▼
10:01 +2’	1.15▲	7.22▲	13.78▲
11:05	1.17▲	6.94▼	12.98▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · INAC Leonessa (W) 5–1–0 AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Japan Women Empowerment League	INAC Leonessa (W)	5-1 HT 2-0	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
27/09/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	INAC Leonessa (W)
22/03/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	0-3 HT 0-2	INAC Leonessa (W)
06/10/24 Japan Women Empowerment League	INAC Leonessa (W)	3-2 HT 1-0	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
24/03/24 Japan Women Empowerment League	INAC Leonessa (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
09/12/23 Japan Women Empowerment League	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	INAC Leonessa (W)

Standings · Japan Women Empowerment League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Urawa Red Diamonds (W)	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
2	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
3	Cerezo Osaka (W)	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
4	Albirex Niigata (W)	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
6	Mynavi Sendai (W)	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
7	INAC Leonessa (W)	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Nojima (W)	2	1	0	1	2	5	3
10	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
11	Omiya Ardija (W)	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
12	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	2	0	0	2	2	6	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	INAC Leonessa (W)	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)
Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	1-2 L	0-4 L
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	2-1 W	1-5 L
Mynavi Sendai (W)	2-1 W	1-2 L
Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	2-0 W	1-4 L
Albirex Niigata (W)	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: INAC Leonessa (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

INAC Leonessa (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
22/08	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	2-1	7	1	W
16/05	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	–	0-1	–	–	L
10/05	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
03/05	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-0	5-1	9	1	W
25/04	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	2-1	1	2	W
05/04	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
29/03	JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	4-0	4	2	W
22/02	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
15/02	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-1	5	1	L

AC Nagano Parceiro (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	1-4	1	0	L
23/08	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	1-2	10	1	L
16/05	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
10/05	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
03/05	INAC Leonessa (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-2	1-5	3	1	L
25/04	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	1-5	2	1	L
04/04	Nojima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	0-2	5	0	L
28/03	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
22/02	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-4	0-5	3	0	L
14/02	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-2	0-4	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in INAC Leonessa (W) vs AC Nagano Parceiro (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a INAC Leonessa (W) win (77%). Probabilities: INAC Leonessa (W) 77%, draw 15%, AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 8%.

How many goals are expected in INAC Leonessa (W) vs AC Nagano Parceiro (W)?

The model expects 3.29 goals (INAC Leonessa (W) 2.58 · AC Nagano Parceiro (W) 0.71), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in INAC Leonessa (W) vs AC Nagano Parceiro (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.