Football · Japan Women Empowerment League · 06/09, 10:00

Prediction: Nojima (W) vs INAC Leonessa (W)

Team pages: Nojima (W) · INAC Leonessa (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Nojima (W)1.04

INAC Leonessa (W)2.03

1X2

18% 23% 59%

Nojima (W) Draw INAC Leonessa (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Nojima (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLWWWL

INAC Leonessa (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLWLD

Head-to-head

Nojima (W) 0–6 INAC Leonessa (W) (6 last)

INAC Leonessa (W)5-0Nojima (W)
Nojima (W)1-5INAC Leonessa (W)
Nojima (W)1-3INAC Leonessa (W)
INAC Leonessa (W)4-0Nojima (W)
Nojima (W)0-3INAC Leonessa (W)
INAC Leonessa (W)2-0Nojima (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nojima (W) 1503 · INAC Leonessa (W) 1573

	Nojima (W)	Draw	INAC Leonessa (W)
Our model	18%	23%	59%
Market	18%	23%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours INAC Leonessa (W) (rating 1503 vs 1573).
H2H favours INAC Leonessa (W): 6-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nojima (W)	INAC Leonessa (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	2.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	2.2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.5 / 0	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.90

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.93

2 (-1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:14 +6’	5.00	3.90	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nojima (W) 0–0–6 INAC Leonessa (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/11/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	INAC Leonessa (W)	5-0 HT 2-0	Nojima (W)
15/09/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Nojima (W)	1-5 HT 0-2	INAC Leonessa (W)
17/05/25 Japan Women Empowerment League	Nojima (W)	1-3 HT 0-0	INAC Leonessa (W)
14/10/24 Japan Women Empowerment League	INAC Leonessa (W)	4-0 HT 3-0	Nojima (W)
21/04/24 Japan Women Empowerment League	Nojima (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	INAC Leonessa (W)
26/11/23 Japan Women Empowerment League	INAC Leonessa (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Nojima (W)

Standings · Japan Women Empowerment League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Urawa Red Diamonds (W)	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
2	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W)	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
3	Cerezo Osaka (W)	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
4	Albirex Niigata (W)	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
5	INAC Leonessa (W)	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
6	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W)	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
7	Mynavi Sendai (W)	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
8	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Nojima (W)	2	1	0	1	2	5	3
10	AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	3	0	1	2	4	8	1
11	JEF Utd Chiba (W)	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
12	Omiya Ardija (W)	2	0	0	2	0	3	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nojima (W)	INAC Leonessa (W)
Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W)	1-0 W	1-2 L
Omiya Ardija (W)	4-0 W	2-1 W
AC Nagano Parceiro (W)	2-0 W	2-2 D
Mynavi Sendai (W)	1-2 L	2-1 W
JEF Utd Chiba (W)	2-2 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nojima (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nojima (W)

DLLWWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-1	1-5	1	0	L
22/08	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
16/05	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-0	4-0	3	1	W
09/05	Albirex Niigata (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-0	2-0	6	1	W
02/05	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
26/04	Cerezo Osaka (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
04/04	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-0	1	0	W
29/03	Urawa Red Diamonds (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
22/02	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-2	7	1	L
14/02	JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-2	2-2	5	0	D

INAC Leonessa (W)

WWWWWWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-2	2-2	12	1	D
30/08	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	1-2	4	1	L
22/08	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-1	2-1	7	1	W
16/05	Sanfrecce Hiroshima (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	–	0-1	–	–	L
10/05	Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
03/05	AC Nagano Parceiro (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	2-0	5-1	9	1	W
25/04	Mynavi Sendai (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	2-1	1	2	W
05/04	Omiya Ardija (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
29/03	JEF Utd Chiba (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	0-0	4-0	4	2	W
22/02	Nippon TV Tokyo Verdy Beleza (W) Japan Women Empowerment League	1-0	2-0	6	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nojima (W) vs INAC Leonessa (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an INAC Leonessa (W) win (59%). Probabilities: Nojima (W) 18%, draw 23%, INAC Leonessa (W) 59%.

How many goals are expected in Nojima (W) vs INAC Leonessa (W)?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Nojima (W) 1.04 · INAC Leonessa (W) 2.03), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nojima (W) vs INAC Leonessa (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.