Football · Colombia Primera A · 25/07, 23:05
Prediction: Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
Independiente Medellin1.53
Deportivo Pasto0.86
1X2
Independiente Medellin
Draw
Deportivo Pasto
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Independiente Medellin
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Pasto
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Independiente Medellin
3–1–2
Deportivo Pasto
(6 last)
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Medellin (rating 1524 vs 1479).
- H2H favours Independiente Medellin: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente Medellin | Deportivo Pasto | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/67/11% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6 | 1.9 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 4.9 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Medellin 3–1–2 Deportivo Pasto
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/26 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Medellin |
| 19/08/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Independiente Medellin |
| 04/03/25 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Medellin | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Pasto |
| 09/09/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Medellin |
| 01/03/24 Colombia Primera A | Independiente Medellin | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Pasto |
| 26/10/23 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pasto | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Independiente Medellin |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Pasto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Aguilas Doradas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Alianza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | America de Cali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Boyaca Chico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Junior | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Once Caldas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportes Tolima | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cucuta Deportivo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo Cali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo Pereira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Fortaleza CEIF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Independiente Medellin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Independiente Santa Fe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Internacional de Bogota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Llaneros | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Millonarios | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Itagui Leones Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 1 | D |
| 27/05 | Estudiantes LP Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | Cusco FC Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Orsomarso Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 11/05 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 08/05 | Flamengo Copa Libertadores |
– | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 03/05 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 8 | L |
| 01/05 | Cusco FC Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
Deportivo Pasto
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 04/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 11/04 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 01/04 | Alianza Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 30/03 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 25/03 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 18/03 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Medellin win (52%). Probabilities: Independiente Medellin 52%, draw 28%, Deportivo Pasto 20%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model expects 2.39 goals (Independiente Medellin 1.53 · Deportivo Pasto 0.86), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.