Football · Colombia Primera A · 18/09, 01:00

Prediction: Atletico Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin

Team pages: Atletico Bucaramanga · Independiente Medellin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Atletico Bucaramanga1.4

Independiente Medellin1.27

1X2

39% 28% 33%

Atletico Bucaramanga Draw Independiente Medellin

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Bucaramanga 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDLWDDWDDW

Independiente Medellin 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWLWWL

Head-to-head

Atletico Bucaramanga 2–4 Independiente Medellin (6 last)

Independiente Medellin1-2Atletico Bucaramanga
Independiente Medellin3-0Atletico Bucaramanga
Atletico Bucaramanga2-0Independiente Medellin
Atletico Bucaramanga2-3Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin1-0Atletico Bucaramanga
Independiente Medellin2-0Atletico Bucaramanga

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Independiente Medellin: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Bucaramanga	Independiente Medellin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.1	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.3	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.86

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:07

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.28▲	Pinn 2.28
X	3.07 → 3.09▲	Pinn 3.09
2	3.30 → 3.33▲	Pinn 3.33

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:42 +25’	2.25	3.07	3.30
07:42 +25’	2.28▲	3.09▲	3.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Bucaramanga 2–0–4 Independiente Medellin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	1-2 HT 0-2	Atletico Bucaramanga
30/10/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	3-0 HT 3-0	Atletico Bucaramanga
10/05/25 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	2-0 HT 1-0	Independiente Medellin
04/11/24 Colombia Primera A	Atletico Bucaramanga	2-3 HT 2-0	Independiente Medellin
14/04/24 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Bucaramanga
26/09/23 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Medellin	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Bucaramanga

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	8	6	2	0	20	4	20
2	Deportes Tolima	8	5	1	2	12	9	16
3	Independiente Medellin	7	5	0	2	13	8	15
4	Independiente Santa Fe	8	3	4	1	12	9	13
5	Millonarios	9	3	4	2	10	7	13
6	Atletico Nacional Medellin	5	4	0	1	12	4	12
7	Llaneros	9	3	2	4	11	12	11
8	Internacional de Bogota	9	2	5	2	11	12	11
9	Aguilas Doradas	6	2	4	0	10	8	10
10	Atletico Bucaramanga	6	2	4	0	7	5	10
11	Once Caldas	7	2	3	2	11	9	9
12	Deportivo Cali	7	2	3	2	9	7	9
13	Cucuta Deportivo	8	2	3	3	8	13	9
14	Fortaleza CEIF	9	1	5	3	10	12	8
15	Boyaca Chico	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
16	Jaguares de Cordoba	8	1	4	3	9	14	7
17	Deportivo Pereira	6	1	3	2	3	6	6
18	Alianza	8	1	2	5	6	15	5
19	Junior	7	0	3	4	8	13	3
20	Deportivo Pasto	8	0	2	6	7	15	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Bucaramanga	Independiente Medellin
Deportivo Pereira	3-1 W	3-0 W
Deportivo Cali	1-1 D	1-0 W
Deportes Tolima	0-0 D	3-2 W
Cucuta Deportivo	1-1 D	0-1 L
Llaneros	1-1 D	2-1 W
Fortaleza CEIF	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Medellin (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico Bucaramanga

LDLWDDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
31/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	2	8	D
22/08	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
09/08	Alianza Colombia Primera A	2-1	3-2	0	6	W
04/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-1	3	11	D
31/07	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	6	7	D
26/07	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
03/05	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
25/04	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
21/04	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	4	3	L

Independiente Medellin

WWLWWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	1	5	L
04/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
30/08	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	2-1	2-1	2	8	W
23/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
05/08	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	2-0	3-2	2	5	W
02/08	Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
25/07	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	2-2	3-2	4	7	W
03/05	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	10	8	L
26/04	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
23/04	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Bucaramanga win (39%). Probabilities: Atletico Bucaramanga 39%, draw 28%, Independiente Medellin 33%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Atletico Bucaramanga 1.4 · Independiente Medellin 1.27), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Bucaramanga vs Independiente Medellin?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.