Football · Colombia Primera A · 19/09, 23:05

Prediction: Alianza vs Independiente Santa Fe

Team pages: Alianza · Independiente Santa Fe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.01Total

Alianza1.04

Independiente Santa Fe0.97

1X2

36% 32% 32%

Alianza Draw Independiente Santa Fe

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDDLLDLLLW

Independiente Santa Fe 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDLDWDDWDW

Head-to-head

Alianza 1–2–3 Independiente Santa Fe (6 last)

Independiente Santa Fe1-1Alianza
Independiente Santa Fe1-0Alianza
Independiente Santa Fe4-1Alianza
Alianza1-1Independiente Santa Fe
Alianza6-1Independiente Santa Fe
Independiente Santa Fe2-0Alianza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza 1445 · Independiente Santa Fe 1550

	Alianza	Draw	Independiente Santa Fe
Our model	35%	33%	31%
Market	37%	31%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.01 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Santa Fe (rating 1445 vs 1550).
H2H favours Independiente Santa Fe: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza	Independiente Santa Fe
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.6	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.9 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.00

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:41	2.50	3.00	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza 1–2–3 Independiente Santa Fe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	1-1 HT 1-0	Alianza
14/11/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	1-0 HT 0-0	Alianza
10/09/25 Colombia Cup	Independiente Santa Fe	4-1 HT 1-0	Alianza
28/08/25 Colombia Cup	Alianza	1-1 HT 0-1	Independiente Santa Fe
25/05/25 Colombia Primera A	Alianza	6-1 HT 3-0	Independiente Santa Fe
27/09/24 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	2-0 HT 0-0	Alianza

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	America de Cali	8	6	2	0	20	4	20
2	Millonarios	10	4	4	2	12	8	16
3	Deportes Tolima	8	5	1	2	12	9	16
4	Atletico Nacional Medellin	6	5	0	1	14	4	15
5	Independiente Medellin	7	5	0	2	13	8	15
6	Atletico Bucaramanga	7	3	4	0	10	6	13
7	Independiente Santa Fe	8	3	4	1	12	9	13
8	Deportivo Cali	8	3	3	2	11	8	12
9	Llaneros	9	3	2	4	11	12	11
10	Internacional de Bogota	9	2	5	2	11	12	11
11	Aguilas Doradas	7	2	4	1	10	10	10
12	Once Caldas	8	2	3	3	12	11	9
13	Cucuta Deportivo	9	2	3	4	9	15	9
14	Fortaleza CEIF	9	1	5	3	10	12	8
15	Boyaca Chico	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
16	Jaguares de Cordoba	8	1	4	3	9	14	7
17	Deportivo Pereira	7	1	3	3	4	9	6
18	Alianza	8	1	2	5	6	15	5
19	Junior	7	0	3	4	8	13	3
20	Deportivo Pasto	8	0	2	6	7	15	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza	Independiente Santa Fe
Junior	1-0 W	1-1 D
America de Cali	0-3 L	0-0 D
Deportes Tolima	1-2 L	1-0 W
Fortaleza CEIF	1-1 D	2-2 D
Millonarios	2-2 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Santa Fe (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza

DDDLLDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	6	9	W
03/09	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
30/08	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-3	1-5	2	5	L
26/08	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	5	11	L
22/08	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
09/08	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-3	3	6	L
01/08	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
27/07	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
03/05	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	3	8	D
27/04	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Independiente Santa Fe

DDLDWDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	2-0	2-2	4	4	D
03/09	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-2	7	8	W
30/08	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
23/08	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
08/08	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
03/08	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
26/07	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
24/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
17/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza vs Independiente Santa Fe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza win (36%). Probabilities: Alianza 36%, draw 32%, Independiente Santa Fe 32%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza vs Independiente Santa Fe?

The model expects 2.01 goals (Alianza 1.04 · Independiente Santa Fe 0.97), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza vs Independiente Santa Fe?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.