Football · England Championship · 17/08, 21:00
Prediction: Cardiff vs Wrexham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.01Total
Cardiff1.59
Wrexham1.42
1X2
Cardiff
Draw
Wrexham
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Cardiff
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Wrexham
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cardiff
1–0
Wrexham
(1 last)
- Wrexham1-2Cardiff
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cardiff 1586 · Wrexham 1499
| Cardiff | Draw | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 26% | 33% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cardiff (rating 1586 vs 1499).
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cardiff | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.2 / 1.9 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 6.9 | 1.5 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cardiff 1–0–0 Wrexham
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/25 England EFL Cup | Wrexham | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Cardiff |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Blackburn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bolton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bristol City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Charlton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Derby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lincoln City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Millwall | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Norwich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Portsmouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Preston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | QPR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sheff Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stoke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Swansea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | West Brom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wolverhampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cardiff
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Swindon England EFL Cup |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Roma Elite Club Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Forest Green UK Friendlies |
5-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 14/07 | Cork City Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 6-1 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Midtjylland Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Mansfield England League 1 |
0-3 | 4-5 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Northampton England League 1 |
3-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | Port Vale England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Reading England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 14/04 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
Wrexham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Middlesbrough England EFL Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Sunderland Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 30/07 | Liverpool Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 26/07 | Leeds Elite Club Friendlies |
2-2 | 3-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Man Utd Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | Wisla Krakow Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 02/05 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 26/04 | Coventry England Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 21/04 | Oxford Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Stoke England Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cardiff vs Wrexham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cardiff win (40%). Probabilities: Cardiff 40%, draw 27%, Wrexham 33%.
How many goals are expected in Cardiff vs Wrexham?
The model expects 3.01 goals (Cardiff 1.59 · Wrexham 1.42), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Wrexham?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.