Football · England Championship · 16/08, 17:00
Prediction: Burnley vs West Ham
Team pages: Burnley · West Ham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Burnley1.29
West Ham1.47
1X2
Burnley
Draw
West Ham
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Burnley
0-5-5 (W-D-L)
West Ham
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Burnley
0–3–3
West Ham
(6 last)
- Burnley0-2West Ham
- West Ham3-2Burnley
- West Ham2-2Burnley
- Burnley1-2West Ham
- West Ham1-1Burnley
- Burnley0-0West Ham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Burnley 1423 · West Ham 1541
| Burnley | Draw | West Ham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market | 33% | 27% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours West Ham (rating 1423 vs 1541).
- H2H favours West Ham: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Burnley | West Ham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.8 | 1.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.2 | 2.1 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Burnley 0–3–3 West Ham
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 England Premier League | Burnley | 0-2 HT 0-2 | West Ham |
| 08/11/25 England Premier League | West Ham | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Burnley |
| 10/03/24 England Premier League | West Ham | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Burnley |
| 25/11/23 England Premier League | Burnley | 1-2 HT 0-0 | West Ham |
| 17/04/22 England Premier League | West Ham | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Burnley |
| 12/12/21 England Premier League | Burnley | 0-0 HT 0-0 | West Ham |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Blackburn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bolton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bristol City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Charlton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Derby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lincoln City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Millwall | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Norwich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Portsmouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Preston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | QPR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sheff Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stoke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Swansea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | West Brom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wolverhampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Burnley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Notts County England EFL Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Torino Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 29/07 | Espanyol Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 26/07 | Ajax Elite Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 16/07 | Real Salt Lake World Club Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Columbus Crew Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/07 | FC Cincinnati World Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Wolverhampton England Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 18/05 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Aston Villa England Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
West Ham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Portsmouth England EFL Cup |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Magdeburg Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 26/07 | Rangers Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 22/07 | Stevenage UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Southend UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Leeds England Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Newcastle England Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Arsenal England Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Brentford England Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Everton England Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Burnley vs West Ham?
According to our model, the most likely result is an West Ham win (40%). Probabilities: Burnley 32%, draw 27%, West Ham 40%.
How many goals are expected in Burnley vs West Ham?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Burnley 1.29 · West Ham 1.47), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs West Ham?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.