Football · England Championship · 16/08, 14:30
Prediction: Watford vs Southampton
Team pages: Watford · Southampton
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Watford1.2
Southampton1.56
1X2
Watford
Draw
Southampton
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Watford
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Southampton
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Watford
0–3–3
Southampton
(6 last)
- Southampton1-0Watford
- Watford2-2Southampton
- Southampton3-2Watford
- Southampton3-0Watford
- Watford1-1Southampton
- Watford1-1Southampton
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Watford 1440 · Southampton 1596
| Watford | Draw | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 27% | 44% |
| Market | 29% | 26% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southampton (rating 1440 vs 1596).
- H2H favours Southampton: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Watford | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.1 | 1.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 5.2 | 1.5 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Watford 0–3–3 Southampton
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 England Championship | Southampton | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Watford |
| 30/08/25 England Championship | Watford | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Southampton |
| 13/04/24 England Championship | Southampton | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Watford |
| 06/02/24 England FA Cup | Southampton | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Watford |
| 28/01/24 England FA Cup | Watford | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Southampton |
| 09/12/23 England Championship | Watford | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Southampton |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Blackburn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bolton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bristol City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Charlton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Derby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lincoln City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Millwall | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Norwich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Portsmouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Preston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | QPR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sheff Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stoke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Swansea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | West Brom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wolverhampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Watford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Crawley Town England EFL Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 29/07 | Fiorentina Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 25/07 | Hansa Rostock Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 14/07 | Barnet UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 11/07 | Boreham Wood UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Coventry England Championship |
0-2 | 0-4 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 21/04 | West Brom England Championship |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Oxford Utd England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
Southampton
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Colchester England EFL Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 01/08 | SC Preussen Munster Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 24/07 | Eintracht Braunschweig Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Eastleigh UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 12/05 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 8 | D |
| 09/05 | Middlesbrough England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 02/05 | Preston England Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 28/04 | Ipswich England Championship |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 25/04 | Man City England FA Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 21/04 | Bristol City England Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Watford vs Southampton?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Southampton win (45%). Probabilities: Watford 29%, draw 27%, Southampton 45%.
How many goals are expected in Watford vs Southampton?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Watford 1.2 · Southampton 1.56), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Watford vs Southampton?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.