Football · England Championship · 15/08, 18:30

Prediction: Sheff Utd vs Birmingham

Team pages: Sheff Utd · Birmingham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Sheff Utd1.32

Birmingham1.22

1X2

38% 29% 33%

Sheff Utd Draw Birmingham

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sheff Utd 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDWWWD

Birmingham 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Sheff Utd 3–2–1 Birmingham (6 last)

Birmingham1-1Sheff Utd
Sheff Utd3-0Birmingham
Birmingham2-1Sheff Utd
Birmingham1-2Sheff Utd
Sheff Utd1-1Birmingham
Birmingham1-2Sheff Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sheff Utd 1560 · Birmingham 1598

	Sheff Utd	Draw	Birmingham
Our model	38%	29%	33%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sheff Utd: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sheff Utd	Birmingham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	1.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.6	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.20

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.54 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.25
2	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.87

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:22 +7’	2.40	3.20	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:28 +1’	2.54	3.25	2.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sheff Utd 3–2–1 Birmingham

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England Championship	Birmingham	1-1 HT 1-1	Sheff Utd
20/12/25 England Championship	Sheff Utd	3-0 HT 2-0	Birmingham
13/08/25 England EFL Cup	Birmingham	2-1 HT 1-0	Sheff Utd
08/05/23 England Championship	Birmingham	1-2 HT 0-0	Sheff Utd
01/10/22 England Championship	Sheff Utd	1-1 HT 0-0	Birmingham
04/02/22 England Championship	Birmingham	1-2 HT 0-0	Sheff Utd

Standings · England Championship

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	Pts
1	Birmingham	0
1	Blackburn	0
1	Bolton	0
1	Bristol City	0
1	Burnley	0
1	Cardiff	0
1	Charlton	0
1	Derby	0
1	Lincoln City	0
1	Middlesbrough	0
1	Millwall	0
1	Norwich	0
1	Portsmouth	0
1	Preston	0
1	QPR	0
1	Sheff Utd	0
1	Stoke	0
1	Swansea	0
1	Watford	0
1	West Brom	0
1	West Ham	0
1	Wolverhampton	0
1	Wrexham	0
24	Southampton	-4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sheff Utd	Birmingham
Huddersfield	3-1 W	3-1 W
Preston	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Birmingham (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sheff Utd

WLLWWDWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Bochum Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
25/07	Rotherham UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	13	0	W
21/07	Huddersfield UK Friendlies	0-1	3-1	1	0	W
17/07	Levante Club Friendly List	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
11/07	Chesterfield UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
04/07	Halifax UK Friendlies	1-0	3-1	4	0	W
02/05	Derby England Championship	0-1	2-1	4	7	W
25/04	Preston England Championship	0-2	2-3	10	3	L
22/04	Blackburn England Championship	0-3	1-3	2	6	L
18/04	Watford England Championship	0-0	2-0	5	6	W

Birmingham

WWDWWWWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Swansea England EFL Cup	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
31/07	Barcelona Elite Club Friendlies	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
25/07	Crewe UK Friendlies	1-1	2-1	0	0	W
25/07	Northampton Club Friendly List	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
22/07	Burton Albion UK Friendlies	1-0	1-0	2	0	W
15/07	Solihull Moors UK Friendlies	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
10/07	Huddersfield UK Friendlies	1-0	3-1	2	0	W
02/05	Portsmouth England Championship	1-1	1-1	9	4	D
25/04	Bristol City England Championship	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
22/04	Preston England Championship	2-1	2-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sheff Utd vs Birmingham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sheff Utd win (38%). Probabilities: Sheff Utd 38%, draw 29%, Birmingham 33%.

How many goals are expected in Sheff Utd vs Birmingham?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Sheff Utd 1.32 · Birmingham 1.22), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sheff Utd vs Birmingham?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.