Football · England Championship · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Stoke vs Swansea
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.28Total
Stoke1.21
Swansea1.07
1X2
Stoke
Draw
Swansea
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Stoke
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Swansea
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stoke
2–2–2
Swansea
(6 last)
- Swansea2-0Stoke
- Stoke2-1Swansea
- Stoke3-1Swansea
- Swansea0-0Stoke
- Swansea3-0Stoke
- Stoke1-1Swansea
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stoke 1458 · Swansea 1520
| Stoke | Draw | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 31% | 31% |
| Market | 39% | 29% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Swansea (rating 1458 vs 1520).
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stoke | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 7.2 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stoke 2–2–2 Swansea
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/03/26 England Championship | Swansea | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Stoke |
| 13/12/25 England Championship | Stoke | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Swansea |
| 15/02/25 England Championship | Stoke | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Swansea |
| 05/10/24 England Championship | Swansea | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Stoke |
| 10/04/24 England Championship | Swansea | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Stoke |
| 12/12/23 England Championship | Stoke | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Swansea |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Blackburn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bolton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bristol City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Charlton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Derby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lincoln City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Millwall | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Norwich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Portsmouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Preston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | QPR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sheff Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stoke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Swansea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | West Brom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wolverhampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stoke
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Oldham England EFL Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Valencia Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 28/07 | Everton Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Crewe UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 10/07 | Braga Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 02/05 | Bristol City England Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 15 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Portsmouth England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 21/04 | Millwall England Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Wrexham England Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Blackburn England Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
Swansea
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Birmingham England EFL Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Leganes Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 24/07 | Udinese Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 21/07 | Bochum Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Holstein Kiel Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Charlton England Championship |
0-0 | 3-1 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Norwich England Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 21/04 | QPR England Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/04 | Southampton England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Leicester England Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stoke vs Swansea?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stoke win (39%). Probabilities: Stoke 39%, draw 30%, Swansea 32%.
How many goals are expected in Stoke vs Swansea?
The model expects 2.28 goals (Stoke 1.21 · Swansea 1.07), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Stoke vs Swansea?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.