Football · England Championship · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: Portsmouth vs QPR

Team pages: Portsmouth · QPR

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Portsmouth1.72

QPR1.46

1X2

42% 26% 31%

Portsmouth Draw QPR

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Portsmouth 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWLDLDDL

QPR 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLLDWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Portsmouth 3–1–2 QPR (6 last)

QPR6-1Portsmouth
Portsmouth1-1QPR
Portsmouth2-1QPR
QPR1-2Portsmouth
QPR0-2Portsmouth
QPR2-0Portsmouth

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portsmouth 1473 · QPR 1550

	Portsmouth	Draw	QPR
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours QPR (rating 1473 vs 1550).
H2H favours Portsmouth: 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portsmouth	QPR
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	2.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.4	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.2 / 0	1.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.31 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.43
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.07

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:17 +3’	2.20	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:19 +1’	2.31	3.43	3.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portsmouth 3–1–2 QPR

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 England Championship	QPR	6-1 HT 3-1	Portsmouth
26/12/25 England Championship	Portsmouth	1-1 HT 1-0	QPR
22/02/25 England Championship	Portsmouth	2-1 HT 0-0	QPR
19/10/24 England Championship	QPR	1-2 HT 1-1	Portsmouth
28/08/19 England EFL Cup	QPR	0-2 HT 0-0	Portsmouth
05/02/19 England FA Cup	QPR	2-0 HT 0-0	Portsmouth

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	Pts
1	Birmingham	0
1	Blackburn	0
1	Bolton	0
1	Bristol City	0
1	Burnley	0
1	Cardiff	0
1	Charlton	0
1	Derby	0
1	Lincoln City	0
1	Middlesbrough	0
1	Millwall	0
1	Norwich	0
1	Portsmouth	0
1	Preston	0
1	QPR	0
1	Sheff Utd	0
1	Stoke	0
1	Swansea	0
1	Watford	0
1	West Brom	0
1	West Ham	0
1	Wolverhampton	0
1	Wrexham	0
24	Southampton	-4

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Portsmouth

LWDWLDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	West Ham England EFL Cup	1-2	1-3	7	3	L
01/08	Darmstadt Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
29/07	Farnborough UK Friendlies	1-0	1-1	8	1	D
25/07	Wycombe UK Friendlies	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
18/07	Bristol Rovers UK Friendlies	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
15/07	Aldershot UK Friendlies	0-2	0-2	2	0	L
14/07	Woking UK Friendlies	1-1	2-1	5	0	W
02/05	Birmingham England Championship	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
25/04	Stoke England Championship	1-0	3-1	1	2	W
21/04	Coventry England Championship	0-1	1-5	1	1	L

QPR

LLLDWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Millwall England EFL Cup	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
01/08	AFC Wimbledon UK Friendlies	1-0	3-2	3	0	W
31/07	Bromley UK Friendlies	3-0	7-0	2	0	W
25/07	Fiorentina Europe Friendlies	2-1	3-2	4	0	W
21/07	Wycombe UK Friendlies	0-0	1-0	8	0	W
16/07	Wiener Neustadt Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-1	6	1	W
11/07	First Vienna FC 1894 Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
02/05	Ipswich England Championship	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
25/04	Derby England Championship	1-1	2-3	10	4	L
21/04	Swansea England Championship	0-1	1-2	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portsmouth vs QPR?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portsmouth win (42%). Probabilities: Portsmouth 42%, draw 26%, QPR 31%.

How many goals are expected in Portsmouth vs QPR?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Portsmouth 1.72 · QPR 1.46), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs QPR?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.