Football · England Championship · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Charlton vs Derby
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Charlton1.26
Derby1.24
1X2
Charlton
Draw
Derby
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Charlton
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Derby
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Charlton
2–1–3
Derby
(6 last)
- Charlton1-2Derby
- Derby1-1Charlton
- Derby1-2Charlton
- Charlton0-1Derby
- Derby2-0Charlton
- Charlton1-0Derby
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Charlton 1504 · Derby 1488
| Charlton | Draw | Derby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 30% | 35% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Derby: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Charlton | Derby | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.3 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.2 / 0 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlton 2–1–3 Derby
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/26 England Championship | Charlton | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Derby |
| 30/09/25 England Championship | Derby | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Charlton |
| 27/02/24 England League 1 | Derby | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Charlton |
| 03/02/24 England League 1 | Charlton | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Derby |
| 18/02/23 England League 1 | Derby | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Charlton |
| 06/08/22 England League 1 | Charlton | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Derby |
Standings · England Championship
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Blackburn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bolton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bristol City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Charlton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Derby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lincoln City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Millwall | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Norwich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Portsmouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Preston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | QPR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sheff Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stoke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Swansea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | West Brom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wolverhampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Charlton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Cheltenham England EFL Cup |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Reading UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 28/07 | Colchester UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | AFC Wimbledon UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | Gillingham UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 10/07 | NK Maribor Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 03/07 | Dartford UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Swansea England Championship |
0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/04 | Hull England Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/04 | Ipswich England Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
Derby
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Lincoln City England EFL Cup |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 04/08 | Rotherham UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Burton Albion UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 31/07 | Mansfield UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 28/07 | Valencia Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/07 | SC Freiburg Elite Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 17/07 | Alfreton Town UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Sheff Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | QPR England Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/04 | Norwich England Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Charlton vs Derby?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlton win (36%). Probabilities: Charlton 36%, draw 29%, Derby 35%.
How many goals are expected in Charlton vs Derby?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Charlton 1.26 · Derby 1.24), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Derby?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.