Football · England Championship · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Bristol City vs Millwall
Team pages: Bristol City · Millwall
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.23Total
Bristol City1.16
Millwall1.07
1X2
Bristol City
Draw
Millwall
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bristol City
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Millwall
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bristol City
3–3
Millwall
(6 last)
- Millwall2-1Bristol City
- Bristol City0-1Millwall
- Millwall0-2Bristol City
- Bristol City4-3Millwall
- Bristol City0-1Millwall
- Millwall0-1Bristol City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bristol City 1481 · Millwall 1521
| Bristol City | Draw | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 32% | 32% |
| Market | 39% | 27% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Millwall (rating 1481 vs 1521).
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bristol City | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.3 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.2 | 3.8 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0 | 1.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bristol City 3–0–3 Millwall
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/12/25 England Championship | Millwall | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Bristol City |
| 06/12/25 England Championship | Bristol City | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Millwall |
| 04/03/25 England Championship | Millwall | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Bristol City |
| 17/08/24 England Championship | Bristol City | 4-3 HT 2-0 | Millwall |
| 01/01/24 England Championship | Bristol City | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Millwall |
| 12/08/23 England Championship | Millwall | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Bristol City |
Standings · England Championship
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Blackburn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bolton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bristol City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Charlton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Derby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lincoln City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Millwall | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Norwich | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Portsmouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Preston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | QPR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sheff Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stoke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Swansea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | West Brom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wolverhampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bristol City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Walsall England EFL Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Exeter UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 01/08 | Plymouth UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 29/07 | Newcastle Elite Club Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 29/07 | Forest Green UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Swindon UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 3-1 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 17/07 | Stockport UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Stoke England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Birmingham England Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/04 | Southampton England Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
Millwall
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | QPR England EFL Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 01/08 | Antwerp Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 28/07 | Bromley UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Stevenage UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 21/07 | Gillingham UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 17/07 | Eldense Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 14/07 | FC Andorra Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 11/05 | Hull England Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Hull England Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Oxford Utd England Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 14 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bristol City vs Millwall?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bristol City win (38%). Probabilities: Bristol City 38%, draw 29%, Millwall 33%.
How many goals are expected in Bristol City vs Millwall?
The model expects 2.23 goals (Bristol City 1.16 · Millwall 1.07), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bristol City vs Millwall?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.