Football · England Championship · 15/08, 13:30

Prediction: Bolton vs Preston

Team pages: Bolton · Preston

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Bolton1.48

Preston1.2

1X2

43% 28% 30%

Bolton Draw Preston

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Bolton 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWDDWL

Preston 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWLLLD

Head-to-head

Bolton 2–2–2 Preston (6 last)

Bolton2-0Preston
Bolton1-0Preston
Bolton1-2Preston
Preston2-2Bolton
Bolton1-3Preston
Preston0-0Bolton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bolton 1528 · Preston 1468

	Bolton	Draw	Preston
Our model	43%	28%	29%
Market	43%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bolton (rating 1528 vs 1468).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bolton	Preston
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	2.9 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.2	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.24
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.34
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.28 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:11 +3’	2.15	3.30	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:13 +1’	2.24	3.34	3.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bolton 2–2–2 Preston

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/25 UK Friendlies	Bolton	2-0 HT 0-0	Preston
20/07/21 Club Friendly List	Bolton	1-0 HT 0-0	Preston
09/02/19 England Championship	Bolton	1-2 HT 0-1	Preston
01/09/18 England Championship	Preston	2-2 HT 2-2	Bolton
03/03/18 England Championship	Bolton	1-3 HT 1-0	Preston
17/11/17 England Championship	Preston	0-0 HT 0-0	Bolton

Standings · England Championship

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#	Team	Pts
1	Birmingham	0
1	Blackburn	0
1	Bolton	0
1	Bristol City	0
1	Burnley	0
1	Cardiff	0
1	Charlton	0
1	Derby	0
1	Lincoln City	0
1	Middlesbrough	0
1	Millwall	0
1	Norwich	0
1	Portsmouth	0
1	Preston	0
1	QPR	0
1	Sheff Utd	0
1	Stoke	0
1	Swansea	0
1	Watford	0
1	West Brom	0
1	West Ham	0
1	Wolverhampton	0
1	Wrexham	0
24	Southampton	-4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bolton	Preston
Stockport	4-1 W	0-1 L
Bradford	1-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Bolton (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Bolton

LWWWLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Sheff Wed England EFL Cup	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
01/08	NAC Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
28/07	Fleetwood Town UK Friendlies	0-0	1-1	6	0	D
25/07	Everton Elite Club Friendlies	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
21/07	Oldham UK Friendlies	2-0	3-1	4	0	W
17/07	Dunajska Streda Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
24/05	Stockport England League 1	1-1	4-1	5	3	W
14/05	Bradford England League 1	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
09/05	Bradford England League 1	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
02/05	Luton England League 1	2-1	2-3	5	7	L

Preston

WLLWLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Huddersfield England EFL Cup	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
01/08	Stockport UK Friendlies	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
29/07	Bradford UK Friendlies	0-1	2-3	6	2	L
24/07	Cambridge Utd UK Friendlies	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
14/07	Bamber Bridge UK Friendlies	1-1	4-1	11	1	W
02/05	Southampton England Championship	0-1	1-3	10	4	L
25/04	Sheff Utd England Championship	2-0	3-2	5	3	W
22/04	Birmingham England Championship	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
18/04	West Brom England Championship	0-1	0-2	8	0	L
11/04	Charlton England Championship	1-1	2-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bolton vs Preston?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bolton win (43%). Probabilities: Bolton 43%, draw 28%, Preston 30%.

How many goals are expected in Bolton vs Preston?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Bolton 1.48 · Preston 1.2), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bolton vs Preston?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.