Football · Slovakia 2. Liga · 29/08, 16:30

Prediction: STK Samorin vs MSK Zilina B

Team pages: STK Samorin · MSK Zilina B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

STK Samorin2.31

MSK Zilina B1.26

1X2

60% 22% 19%

STK Samorin Draw MSK Zilina B

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

STK Samorin 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWWWLW

MSK Zilina B 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLWWDW

Head-to-head

STK Samorin 1–1–4 MSK Zilina B (6 last)

MSK Zilina B5-4STK Samorin
STK Samorin2-3MSK Zilina B
STK Samorin2-1MSK Zilina B
MSK Zilina B3-0STK Samorin
STK Samorin1-1MSK Zilina B
MSK Zilina B1-0STK Samorin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · STK Samorin 1585 · MSK Zilina B 1519

	STK Samorin	Draw	MSK Zilina B
Our model	60%	21%	19%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours STK Samorin (rating 1585 vs 1519).
H2H favours MSK Zilina B: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	STK Samorin	MSK Zilina B
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.4 / 6.2	2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:24 +1’	1.53	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · STK Samorin 1–1–4 MSK Zilina B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/11/25 Slovakia 2. Liga	MSK Zilina B	5-4 HT 2-3	STK Samorin
26/07/25 Slovakia 2. Liga	STK Samorin	2-3 HT 0-1	MSK Zilina B
02/03/25 Slovakia 2. Liga	STK Samorin	2-1 HT 0-1	MSK Zilina B
04/08/24 Slovakia 2. Liga	MSK Zilina B	3-0 HT 1-0	STK Samorin
24/04/24 Slovakia 2. Liga	STK Samorin	1-1 HT 1-1	MSK Zilina B
07/10/23 Slovakia 2. Liga	MSK Zilina B	1-0 HT 0-0	STK Samorin

Standings · Slovakia 2. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Petrzalka	5	5	0	0	14	2	15
2	STK Samorin	5	4	0	1	11	5	12
3	FC Tatran Presov	5	3	1	1	8	7	10
4	MSK Zilina B	5	3	1	1	5	4	10
5	MSK Povazska Bystrica	5	3	0	2	9	9	9
6	FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas	5	2	2	1	10	4	8
7	OFK Banik Lehota	5	1	4	0	10	8	7
8	FK Pohronie	5	2	1	2	9	9	7
9	Inter Bratislava	5	2	0	3	8	6	6
10	FK Humenne	5	2	0	3	4	8	6
11	FC Vion Zlate Moravce	5	1	2	2	5	6	5
12	OFK Malzenice	5	1	1	3	7	9	4
13	Slovan Galanta	5	1	1	3	3	9	4
14	Slovan Bratislava B	5	1	1	3	8	9	4
15	MFK Bytca	5	1	0	4	3	16	3
16	MFK Zvolen	5	0	2	3	3	6	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	STK Samorin	MSK Zilina B
MSK Povazska Bystrica	4-1 W	2-2 D
Slovan Bratislava B	2-1 W	2-4 L
OFK Malzenice	2-0 W	2-1 W
MFK Zvolen	3-1 W	2-5 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: STK Samorin (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

STK Samorin

DDDWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	MSK Povazska Bystrica Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	4-1	4	7	W
15/08	OFK Banik Lehota Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
09/08	Slovan Bratislava B Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
01/08	FK Humenne Slovakia 2. Liga	2-1	3-1	7	5	W
27/07	OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	2-0	10	5	W
15/05	MFK Zvolen Slovakia 2. Liga	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
08/05	OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga	3-0	3-2	2	10	W
02/05	Slovan Bratislava B Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
25/04	MSK Povazska Bystrica Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
22/04	FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas Slovakia 2. Liga	1-1	1-1	12	5	D

MSK Zilina B

DLDLWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	9	6	W
15/08	FC Vion Zlate Moravce Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
09/08	FK Pohronie Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
03/08	Inter Bratislava Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
26/07	FC Petrzalka Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
15/05	Slavia TU Kosice Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	4-0	2	1	W
08/05	MFK Zvolen Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	2-5	6	4	L
03/05	OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
26/04	Slovan Bratislava B Slovakia 2. Liga	0-4	2-4	2	2	L
22/04	MSK Povazska Bystrica Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	2-2	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in STK Samorin vs MSK Zilina B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a STK Samorin win (60%). Probabilities: STK Samorin 60%, draw 22%, MSK Zilina B 19%.

How many goals are expected in STK Samorin vs MSK Zilina B?

The model expects 3.57 goals (STK Samorin 2.31 · MSK Zilina B 1.26), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in STK Samorin vs MSK Zilina B?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.