Football · Slovakia 2. Liga · 22/08, 16:30
Prediction: MSK Povazska Bystrica vs STK Samorin
Team pages: MSK Povazska Bystrica · STK Samorin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
MSK Povazska Bystrica1.64
STK Samorin1.22
1X2
MSK Povazska Bystrica
Draw
STK Samorin
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
MSK Povazska Bystrica
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
STK Samorin
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
MSK Povazska Bystrica
4–2–0
STK Samorin
(6 last)
- MSK Povazska Bystrica1-1STK Samorin
- STK Samorin0-2MSK Povazska Bystrica
- STK Samorin0-1MSK Povazska Bystrica
- MSK Povazska Bystrica4-3STK Samorin
- STK Samorin2-3MSK Povazska Bystrica
- MSK Povazska Bystrica2-2STK Samorin
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · MSK Povazska Bystrica 1511 · STK Samorin 1552
| MSK Povazska Bystrica | Draw | STK Samorin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours STK Samorin (rating 1511 vs 1552).
- H2H favours MSK Povazska Bystrica: 4-2-0.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| MSK Povazska Bystrica | STK Samorin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.6 | 2.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.2 | 4.1 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · MSK Povazska Bystrica 4–2–0 STK Samorin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Slovakia 2. Liga | MSK Povazska Bystrica | 1-1 HT 0-0 | STK Samorin |
| 11/10/25 Slovakia 2. Liga | STK Samorin | 0-2 HT 0-1 | MSK Povazska Bystrica |
| 16/05/25 Slovakia 2. Liga | STK Samorin | 0-1 HT 0-1 | MSK Povazska Bystrica |
| 02/11/24 Slovakia 2. Liga | MSK Povazska Bystrica | 4-3 HT 2-2 | STK Samorin |
| 12/11/23 Slovakia 2. Liga | STK Samorin | 2-3 HT 2-1 | MSK Povazska Bystrica |
| 29/07/23 Slovakia 2. Liga | MSK Povazska Bystrica | 2-2 HT 1-1 | STK Samorin |
Standings · Slovakia 2. Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Petrzalka | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | MSK Povazska Bystrica | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | STK Samorin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
| 4 | FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | MSK Zilina B | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | FC Tatran Presov | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | FK Pohronie | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 7 |
| 8 | Inter Bratislava | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | OFK Banik Lehota | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| 10 | FC Vion Zlate Moravce | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| 11 | OFK Malzenice | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | Slovan Bratislava B | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | FK Humenne | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 14 | MFK Zvolen | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 15 | Slovan Galanta | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| 16 | MFK Bytca | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
MSK Povazska Bystrica
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 10/08 | FC Vion Zlate Moravce Slovakia 2. Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 31/07 | FK Pohronie Slovakia 2. Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Inter Bratislava Slovakia 2. Liga |
3-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | GKS Tychy 71 Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 10/07 | MFK Karvina Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 27/06 | Banik Ostrava B Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | FK Pohronie Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 15/05 | Puchov Slovakia 2. Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 08/05 | FK Pohronie Slovakia 2. Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
STK Samorin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | OFK Banik Lehota Slovakia 2. Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Slovan Bratislava B Slovakia 2. Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | FK Humenne Slovakia 2. Liga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 27/07 | OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 19/07 | Al Gharafa World Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/07 | FC Spartak Trnava Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Dunajska Streda Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | MFK Zvolen Slovakia 2. Liga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga |
3-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 10 | W |
| 02/05 | Slovan Bratislava B Slovakia 2. Liga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in MSK Povazska Bystrica vs STK Samorin?
According to our model, the most likely result is a MSK Povazska Bystrica win (46%). Probabilities: MSK Povazska Bystrica 46%, draw 26%, STK Samorin 27%.
How many goals are expected in MSK Povazska Bystrica vs STK Samorin?
The model expects 2.86 goals (MSK Povazska Bystrica 1.64 · STK Samorin 1.22), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in MSK Povazska Bystrica vs STK Samorin?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.