Football · Slovenia 2. SNL · 21/08, 19:00

Prediction: NK Krka vs ND Slovan Ljubljana

Team pages: NK Krka · ND Slovan Ljubljana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

NK Krka1.75

ND Slovan Ljubljana1.48

1X2

43% 26% 31%

NK Krka Draw ND Slovan Ljubljana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

NK Krka 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWLLDL

ND Slovan Ljubljana 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDWLWLLW

Head-to-head

NK Krka 1–2–1 ND Slovan Ljubljana (4 last)

ND Slovan Ljubljana2-2NK Krka
NK Krka2-1ND Slovan Ljubljana
ND Slovan Ljubljana2-1NK Krka
NK Krka1-1ND Slovan Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Krka 1488 · ND Slovan Ljubljana 1467

	NK Krka	Draw	ND Slovan Ljubljana
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Krka	ND Slovan Ljubljana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.2	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.1	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.2	6.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +18’	2.10	3.40	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Krka 1–2–1 ND Slovan Ljubljana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Slovan Ljubljana	2-2 HT 0-1	NK Krka
28/09/25 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krka	2-1 HT 2-0	ND Slovan Ljubljana
23/11/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	ND Slovan Ljubljana	2-1 HT 1-0	NK Krka
09/08/24 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Krka	1-1 HT 0-1	ND Slovan Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia 2. SNL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ND Ilirija Ljubljana	2	2	0	0	7	0	6
2	Tabor Sezana	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
3	NK Bilje	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
4	NK Krsko	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Jadran Dekani	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
6	NK Rudar Velenje	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
7	ND Beltinci	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	NK Vrhnika	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
8	NK Primorje Ajdovscina	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	NK Triglav Kranj	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
11	ND Slovan Ljubljana	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
12	NK Jesenice	2	0	1	1	1	4	1
13	NK Krka	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
14	NK Bistrica	2	0	1	1	0	6	1
15	NK Brezice	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
16	ND Dravinja	2	0	0	2	1	4	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Krka	ND Slovan Ljubljana
NK Bistrica	0-0 D	0-1 L
NK Krsko	4-0 W	1-1 D
Jadran Dekani	3-4 L	0-3 L
NK Jesenice	3-2 W	1-0 W
ND Gorica	1-4 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: NK Krka (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

NK Krka

LWWLWWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	NK Rudar Velenje Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-3	3	5	L
07/08	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
29/07	HNK Segesta Club Friendly List	0-2	1-4	5	1	L
22/07	NK Kustosija Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-4	3	2	L
18/07	NK Dubrava Zagreb Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
11/07	NK Krsko Club Friendly List	1-0	4-0	8	1	W
23/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	3-1	3-4	–	–	L
15/05	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-2	3-2	8	3	W
10/05	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
06/05	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	1-1	1-4	3	2	L

ND Slovan Ljubljana

DLLDWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL	3-0	3-1	1	7	W
08/08	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	8	7	L
23/05	NK Bistrica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
17/05	Tabor Sezana Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	5-1	3	6	W
10/05	Jadran Dekani Slovenia 2. SNL	1-4	1-5	3	4	L
07/05	NK Jesenice Slovenia 2. SNL	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
30/04	NK Krsko Slovenia 2. SNL	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/04	ND Gorica Slovenia 2. SNL	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
19/04	ND Dravinja Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	1-2	3	8	L
12/04	NK Krka Slovenia 2. SNL	0-1	2-2	10	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Krka vs ND Slovan Ljubljana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Krka win (43%). Probabilities: NK Krka 43%, draw 26%, ND Slovan Ljubljana 31%.

How many goals are expected in NK Krka vs ND Slovan Ljubljana?

The model expects 3.23 goals (NK Krka 1.75 · ND Slovan Ljubljana 1.48), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Krka vs ND Slovan Ljubljana?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.