Football · Poland I Liga · 23/08, 14:30

Prediction: Miedz Legnica vs Arka Gdynia

Team pages: Miedz Legnica · Arka Gdynia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Miedz Legnica1.57

Arka Gdynia1.27

1X2

44% 27% 30%

Miedz Legnica Draw Arka Gdynia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Miedz Legnica 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWDWLW

Arka Gdynia 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWWWLW

Head-to-head

Miedz Legnica 0–6 Arka Gdynia (6 last)

Arka Gdynia5-0Miedz Legnica
Arka Gdynia2-0Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica1-2Arka Gdynia
Miedz Legnica0-1Arka Gdynia
Miedz Legnica0-2Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia2-1Miedz Legnica

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Miedz Legnica 1508 · Arka Gdynia 1508

	Miedz Legnica	Draw	Arka Gdynia
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Arka Gdynia: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Miedz Legnica	Arka Gdynia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.8	1.9 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.25 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.52
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:02 +4’	2.05	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:02 +4’	2.23	3.48	2.93
23:01	2.25▲	3.52▲	2.96▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Miedz Legnica 0–0–6 Arka Gdynia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/25 Europe Friendlies	Arka Gdynia	5-0 HT 0-0	Miedz Legnica
30/03/25 Poland I Liga	Arka Gdynia	2-0 HT 0-0	Miedz Legnica
30/08/24 Poland I Liga	Miedz Legnica	1-2 HT 1-1	Arka Gdynia
30/03/24 Poland I Liga	Miedz Legnica	0-1 HT 0-1	Arka Gdynia
26/09/23 Poland Cup	Miedz Legnica	0-2 HT 0-2	Arka Gdynia
17/09/23 Poland I Liga	Arka Gdynia	2-1 HT 0-0	Miedz Legnica

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
2	Arka Gdynia	4	3	0	1	8	2	9
3	Stal Mielec	4	2	2	0	11	7	8
4	Chrobry Glogow	4	2	1	1	8	4	7
5	Miedz Legnica	4	2	1	1	6	2	7
6	Polonia Warsaw	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	LKS Lodz	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
8	Warta Poznan	4	2	0	2	9	8	6
9	Termalica BB Nieciecza	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
10	Odra Opole	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
11	MKP Pogon Siedlce	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
12	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	4	0	4	0	7	7	4
13	Polonia Bytom	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
14	Ruch Chorzow	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
15	Puszcza Niepolomice	4	1	0	3	3	6	3
16	Unia Skierniewice	4	1	0	3	4	8	3
17	Stal Rzeszow	4	0	2	2	3	11	2
18	Lechia Gdansk	4	0	1	3	2	9	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Miedz Legnica	Arka Gdynia
Unia Skierniewice	3-0 W	0-2 L
GKS Katowice	0-2 L	0-2 L
Puszcza Niepolomice	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Miedz Legnica

LWLLDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
08/08	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
02/08	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
27/07	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
11/07	Banik Ostrava Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-1	1	2	W
08/07	Piast Gliwice Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-2	8	0	D
01/07	GKS Katowice Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-2	5	1	L
26/06	Zaglebie Lubin Europe Friendlies	0-3	0-3	12	3	L
24/05	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
17/05	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-2	1-2	7	5	L

Arka Gdynia

LLLWLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	3-0	3-0	6	4	W
10/08	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	0-2	0-2	5	8	L
01/08	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
24/07	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	0	0	W
18/07	KTS-K Luzino Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-0	3	5	W
11/07	Olimpia Grudziadz Europe Friendlies	1-4	2-4	8	2	L
03/07	Petrolul Ploiesti Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
28/06	GKS Katowice Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-2	0	3	L
23/05	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
18/05	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-3	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Miedz Legnica vs Arka Gdynia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Miedz Legnica win (44%). Probabilities: Miedz Legnica 44%, draw 27%, Arka Gdynia 30%.

How many goals are expected in Miedz Legnica vs Arka Gdynia?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Miedz Legnica 1.57 · Arka Gdynia 1.27), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Miedz Legnica vs Arka Gdynia?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.