Football · Poland I Liga · 14/08, 21:00
Prediction: Ruch Chorzow vs Lechia Gdansk
Team pages: Ruch Chorzow · Lechia Gdansk
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.22Total
Ruch Chorzow2.12
Lechia Gdansk1.1
1X2
Ruch Chorzow
Draw
Lechia Gdansk
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ruch Chorzow
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Lechia Gdansk
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ruch Chorzow
2–1–3
Lechia Gdansk
(6 last)
- Ruch Chorzow2-1Lechia Gdansk
- Lechia Gdansk2-1Ruch Chorzow
- Lechia Gdansk2-1Ruch Chorzow
- Lechia Gdansk2-0Ruch Chorzow
- Ruch Chorzow3-2Lechia Gdansk
- Ruch Chorzow1-1Lechia Gdansk
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ruch Chorzow 1479 · Lechia Gdansk 1396
| Ruch Chorzow | Draw | Lechia Gdansk | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ruch Chorzow (rating 1479 vs 1396).
- H2H favours Lechia Gdansk: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ruch Chorzow | Lechia Gdansk | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 1.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 0/30/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.9 | 2.8 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ruch Chorzow 2–1–3 Lechia Gdansk
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/17 Poland Ekstraklasa | Ruch Chorzow | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Lechia Gdansk |
| 24/09/16 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lechia Gdansk | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Ruch Chorzow |
| 07/05/16 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lechia Gdansk | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Ruch Chorzow |
| 09/04/16 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lechia Gdansk | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Ruch Chorzow |
| 07/11/15 Poland Ekstraklasa | Ruch Chorzow | 3-2 HT 3-0 | Lechia Gdansk |
| 27/02/15 Poland Ekstraklasa | Ruch Chorzow | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Lechia Gdansk |
Standings · Poland I Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Polonia Warsaw | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Chrobry Glogow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Warta Poznan | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Arka Gdynia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Stal Mielec | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Polonia Bytom | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| 10 | LKS Lodz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | Puszcza Niepolomice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Unia Skierniewice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 14 | Odra Opole | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 16 | Ruch Chorzow | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 17 | Lechia Gdansk | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 18 | Stal Rzeszow | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ruch Chorzow | Lechia Gdansk |
|---|---|---|
| Termalica BB Nieciecza | 0-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ruch Chorzow
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 02/08 | Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | MFK Karvina Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 10/07 | Wieczysta Krakow Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Znicz Pruszków Poland I Liga |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | GKS Tychy 71 Poland I Liga |
3-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Odra Opole Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 27/04 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 1 | D |
Lechia Gdansk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 31/07 | Warta Poznan Poland I Liga |
0-3 | 0-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Olimpia Grudziadz Europe Friendlies |
1-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 04/05 | Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 20/04 | Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ruch Chorzow vs Lechia Gdansk?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ruch Chorzow win (60%). Probabilities: Ruch Chorzow 60%, draw 22%, Lechia Gdansk 18%.
How many goals are expected in Ruch Chorzow vs Lechia Gdansk?
The model expects 3.22 goals (Ruch Chorzow 2.12 · Lechia Gdansk 1.1), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ruch Chorzow vs Lechia Gdansk?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.