Football · Belgium First Division A · 23/08, 16:00

Prediction: Lommel vs Westerlo

Team pages: Lommel · Westerlo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Lommel1.4

Westerlo1.4

1X2

36% 28% 36%

Lommel Draw Westerlo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lommel 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWDLWLDL

Westerlo 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWDDLLL

Head-to-head

Lommel 2–1–3 Westerlo (6 last)

Lommel2-1Westerlo
Westerlo3-0Lommel
Lommel0-1Westerlo
Westerlo2-0Lommel
Lommel1-0Westerlo
Westerlo1-1Lommel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lommel 1523 · Westerlo 1446

	Lommel	Draw	Westerlo
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	36%	27%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lommel (rating 1523 vs 1446).
H2H favours Westerlo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lommel	Westerlo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	0.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	22/56/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2.4	1.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.30

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.64
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.49 ★
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.60

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.3% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
08:42 +2’	2.50	3.30	2.50
20:35 +1’	2.50	3.40▲	2.50
05:22 +6’	2.50	3.30▼	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:43 +1’	2.61	3.49	2.56
11:09	2.61	3.54▲	2.60▲
20:36 +1’	2.58▼	3.54	2.64▲
11:29	2.59▲	3.55▲	2.62▼
16:51 +1’	2.63▲	3.49▼	2.61▼
23:26	2.64▲	3.49	2.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lommel 2–1–3 Westerlo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/04/22 Belgium First Division B	Lommel	2-1 HT 2-1	Westerlo
06/02/22 Belgium First Division B	Westerlo	3-0 HT 1-0	Lommel
27/11/21 Belgium First Division B	Lommel	0-1 HT 0-0	Westerlo
01/10/21 Belgium First Division B	Westerlo	2-0 HT 0-0	Lommel
14/03/21 Belgium First Division B	Lommel	1-0 HT 0-0	Westerlo
15/02/21 Belgium First Division B	Westerlo	1-1 HT 0-0	Lommel

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Brugge	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
2	Antwerp	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Gent	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
3	Charleroi	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
5	Standard Liege	3	1	2	0	7	5	5
6	Union Saint Gilloise	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
7	Zulte-Waregem	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	Genk	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
9	Anderlecht	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	SK Beveren	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
11	Cercle Brugge	2	0	2	0	5	5	2
12	Sint-Truidense	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
13	Lommel	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	KV Mechelen	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
15	RAAL La Louviere	3	0	0	3	2	6	0
16	Westerlo	2	0	0	2	3	8	0
17	OH Leuven	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
18	KV Kortrijk	2	0	0	2	0	6	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lommel	Westerlo
Charleroi	0-1 L	1-0 W
KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk	3-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lommel

WWDWDLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Charleroi Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
08/08	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
24/07	ADO Den Haag Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-4	3	1	L
18/07	Go Ahead Eagles Club Friendly List	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/07	OH Leuven Europe Friendlies	1-3	1-5	–	–	L
11/07	Cercle Brugge Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-1	0	2	D
07/07	FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih Club Friendly List	1-1	4-2	–	–	W
23/05	FCV Dender EH Belgium First Division A Play-Offs	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
17/05	FCV Dender EH Belgium First Division A Play-Offs	0-1	3-2	6	4	W
09/05	KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk Belgium First Division A Play-Offs	0-0	3-1	2	3	W

Westerlo

WLLLWDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Genk Belgium First Division A	2-2	2-3	4	6	L
08/08	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	1-1	1-5	4	3	L
01/08	Samsunspor Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-2	5	0	L
29/07	Kifisias FC Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-1	0	1	D
18/07	KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk Europe Friendlies	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/07	Helmond Sport Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
04/07	PAOK Salonika Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-4	3	0	L
23/05	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
19/05	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	1-2	1-2	6	5	L
16/05	Charleroi Belgium First Division A	0-0	1-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lommel vs Westerlo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lommel win (36%). Probabilities: Lommel 36%, draw 28%, Westerlo 36%.

How many goals are expected in Lommel vs Westerlo?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Lommel 1.4 · Westerlo 1.4), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lommel vs Westerlo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.