Football · Belgium First Division A · 23/08, 18:30

Prediction: Club Brugge vs Cercle Brugge

Team pages: Club Brugge · Cercle Brugge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.24Total

Club Brugge2.99

Cercle Brugge1.25

1X2

72% 17% 12%

Club Brugge Draw Cercle Brugge

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Club Brugge 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWDWWW

Cercle Brugge 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWLLDD

Head-to-head

Club Brugge 4–2–0 Cercle Brugge (6 last)

Cercle Brugge1-2Club Brugge
Club Brugge2-0Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge1-3Club Brugge
Club Brugge3-0Cercle Brugge
Club Brugge0-0Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge1-1Club Brugge

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Brugge 1574 · Cercle Brugge 1477

	Club Brugge	Draw	Cercle Brugge
Our model	72%	16%	12%
Market	71%	17%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 4.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Brugge (rating 1574 vs 1477).
H2H favours Club Brugge: 4-2-0.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Brugge	Cercle Brugge
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 0.6	2.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.2	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.3	3.4 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.25

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.99 ★
2	8.00 → 8.00	Pinn 9.08

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:53 +13’	1.28	5.25	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:34 +1’	1.27	5.96	8.97
13:34	1.28▲	5.89▼	8.77▼
23:14	1.28▼	5.94▲	8.89▲
23:35 +1’	1.27▼	6.00▲	9.06▲
11:51 +52’	1.27	5.99▼	9.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Brugge 4–2–0 Cercle Brugge

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Belgium First Division A	Cercle Brugge	1-2 HT 0-0	Club Brugge
09/08/25 Belgium First Division A	Club Brugge	2-0 HT 0-0	Cercle Brugge
09/03/25 Belgium First Division A	Cercle Brugge	1-3 HT 0-3	Club Brugge
01/09/24 Belgium First Division A	Club Brugge	3-0 HT 2-0	Cercle Brugge
26/05/24 Belgium First Division A	Club Brugge	0-0 HT 0-0	Cercle Brugge
01/04/24 Belgium First Division A	Cercle Brugge	1-1 HT 1-0	Club Brugge

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Brugge	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
2	Antwerp	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Gent	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
3	Charleroi	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
5	Standard Liege	3	1	2	0	7	5	5
6	Union Saint Gilloise	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
7	Zulte-Waregem	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	Genk	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
9	Anderlecht	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	SK Beveren	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
11	Cercle Brugge	2	0	2	0	5	5	2
12	Sint-Truidense	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
13	Lommel	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
14	KV Mechelen	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
15	RAAL La Louviere	3	0	0	3	2	6	0
16	Westerlo	2	0	0	2	3	8	0
17	OH Leuven	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
18	KV Kortrijk	2	0	0	2	0	6	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Brugge	Cercle Brugge
Sint-Truidense	2-0 W	3-3 D
Anderlecht	3-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Club Brugge (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Brugge

LWWWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	1-0	3-0	16	0	W
07/08	KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division A	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
24/05	Gent Belgium First Division A	3-0	5-0	5	1	W
21/05	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
17/05	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	3-0	5-0	6	3	W
09/05	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
03/05	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
26/04	Gent Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-0	9	2	W
22/04	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	1-1	6-1	3	3	W
19/04	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	1-1	1-2	3	8	L

Cercle Brugge

LWDWWWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	1-2	3-3	10	3	D
08/08	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	1-1	2-2	11	2	D
09/05	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-4	5	3	L
01/05	Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-3	6	1	L
24/04	FCV Dender EH Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
19/04	FCV Dender EH Belgium First Division A	1-1	4-1	6	4	W
11/04	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	2-0	3-0	9	2	W
04/04	Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
22/03	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	3-1	3-2	7	3	W
15/03	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	0-1	1-3	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Brugge vs Cercle Brugge?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Brugge win (72%). Probabilities: Club Brugge 72%, draw 17%, Cercle Brugge 12%.

How many goals are expected in Club Brugge vs Cercle Brugge?

The model expects 4.24 goals (Club Brugge 2.99 · Cercle Brugge 1.25), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Brugge vs Cercle Brugge?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.