Football · Belgium First Division A · 06/09, 18:30

Prediction: Anderlecht vs Genk

Team pages: Anderlecht · Genk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Anderlecht1.46

Genk1.36

1X2

39% 27% 34%

Anderlecht Draw Genk

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Anderlecht 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDWLWLLW

Genk 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDWDLWDW

Head-to-head

Anderlecht 0–2–4 Genk (6 last)

Genk2-0Anderlecht
Genk1-1Anderlecht
Anderlecht1-1Genk
Genk2-1Anderlecht
Anderlecht1-2Genk
Genk2-0Anderlecht

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Anderlecht 1546 · Genk 1537

	Anderlecht	Draw	Genk
Our model	39%	28%	34%
Market	39%	27%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Genk: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Anderlecht	Genk
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.7	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.40

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.58
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.88 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:38 +7’	2.38	3.40	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:39 +2’	2.43	3.57	2.80
02:07	2.38▼	3.58▲	2.86▲
07:51	2.42▲	3.57▼	2.80▼
12:47	2.37▼	3.56▼	2.89▲
14:52	2.36▼	3.58▲	2.88▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Anderlecht 0–2–4 Genk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Belgium First Division A	Genk	2-0 HT 0-0	Anderlecht
04/12/25 Belgium Cup	Genk	1-1 HT 1-0	Anderlecht
14/09/25 Belgium First Division A	Anderlecht	1-1 HT 0-0	Genk
25/05/25 Belgium First Division A	Genk	2-1 HT 1-1	Anderlecht
06/04/25 Belgium First Division A	Anderlecht	1-2 HT 0-1	Genk
22/12/24 Belgium First Division A	Genk	2-0 HT 1-0	Anderlecht

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Brugge	5	4	0	1	9	2	12
1	Charleroi	4	4	0	0	9	2	12
3	Gent	4	4	0	0	7	2	12
4	Union Saint Gilloise	4	3	1	0	11	1	10
5	Zulte-Waregem	4	2	2	0	8	3	8
6	Standard Liege	4	2	2	0	9	6	8
7	Genk	4	2	1	1	12	8	7
8	Lommel	5	2	1	2	6	3	7
9	Antwerp	4	2	1	1	10	9	7
10	Anderlecht	4	2	0	2	3	5	6
11	Sint-Truidense	4	1	2	1	8	8	5
12	SK Beveren	4	1	0	3	2	10	3
13	Cercle Brugge	4	0	2	2	5	7	2
14	KV Mechelen	4	0	2	2	5	9	2
15	RAAL La Louviere	4	0	1	3	4	8	1
16	Westerlo	4	0	1	3	5	14	1
17	OH Leuven	4	0	0	4	2	9	0
18	KV Kortrijk	4	0	0	4	1	10	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Anderlecht	Genk
SK Beveren	0-1 L	4-0 W
Gent	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Genk (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Anderlecht

LLDDWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
30/08	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	0-2	0-3	3	4	L
16/08	SK Beveren Belgium First Division A	0-1	0-1	12	1	L
09/08	RAAL La Louviere Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-1	10	5	W
24/05	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	0-4	1-5	1	5	L
21/05	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	2-0	3-1	8	4	W
17/05	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
10/05	Gent Belgium First Division A	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
03/05	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-1	1-3	8	4	L
26/04	Union Saint Gilloise Belgium First Division A	1-2	1-3	4	6	L

Genk

LWDDWDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	SK Beveren Belgium First Division A	3-0	4-0	3	1	W
22/08	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	1-1	4-4	4	2	D
15/08	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	2-2	3-2	8	6	W
09/08	Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
31/05	Gent Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
23/05	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	2-0	2-0	4	2	W
19/05	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	11	2	D
16/05	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
10/05	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	0-0	3-0	6	3	W
02/05	Charleroi Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-2	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Anderlecht vs Genk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Anderlecht win (39%). Probabilities: Anderlecht 39%, draw 27%, Genk 34%.

How many goals are expected in Anderlecht vs Genk?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Anderlecht 1.46 · Genk 1.36), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Genk?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.