Football · Belgium First Division A · 22/08, 18:15

Prediction: Charleroi vs KV Mechelen

Team pages: Charleroi · KV Mechelen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Charleroi1.47

KV Mechelen1.06

1X2

45% 29% 26%

Charleroi Draw KV Mechelen

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Charleroi 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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KV Mechelen 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Charleroi 2–1–3 KV Mechelen (6 last)

KV Mechelen1-0Charleroi
Charleroi2-0KV Mechelen
Charleroi0-2KV Mechelen
KV Mechelen1-1Charleroi
Charleroi3-0KV Mechelen
Charleroi0-1KV Mechelen

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours KV Mechelen: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charleroi	KV Mechelen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.9	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.02

Under 2.751.83

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:41

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.76 → 1.76	Pinn 1.76
X	3.77 → 3.77	Pinn 3.77
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
22:35 +5’	1.76	3.77	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Charleroi 2–1–3 KV Mechelen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/12/25 Belgium First Division A	KV Mechelen	1-0 HT 1-0	Charleroi
04/12/25 Belgium Cup	Charleroi	2-0 HT 0-0	KV Mechelen
28/09/25 Belgium First Division A	Charleroi	0-2 HT 0-2	KV Mechelen
18/05/25 Belgium First Division A	KV Mechelen	1-1 HT 0-1	Charleroi
19/04/25 Belgium First Division A	Charleroi	3-0 HT 2-0	KV Mechelen
08/03/25 Belgium First Division A	Charleroi	0-1 HT 0-1	KV Mechelen

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Brugge	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
2	Antwerp	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Union Saint Gilloise	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
4	Zulte-Waregem	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Charleroi	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
6	Gent	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
7	Anderlecht	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
8	Genk	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
9	Cercle Brugge	2	0	2	0	5	5	2
10	Sint-Truidense	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
11	Standard Liege	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
12	Lommel	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
13	RAAL La Louviere	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
13	SK Beveren	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
15	KV Mechelen	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
16	Westerlo	2	0	0	2	3	8	0
17	OH Leuven	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
18	KV Kortrijk	2	0	0	2	0	6	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Charleroi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
01/08	Rayo Vallecano Europe Friendlies	0-1	2-3	7	7	L
01/08	Tienen Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
25/07	Lens Elite Club Friendlies	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
17/07	Feyenoord Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-3	3	0	L
23/05	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-0	9	8	W
19/05	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	0-1	1-1	14	0	D
16/05	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
10/05	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
02/05	Genk Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-0	3	2	W

KV Mechelen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	1-2	3-3	5	2	D
09/08	Gent Belgium First Division A	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
01/08	Dunkerque Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/07	Willem II Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	9	1	L
18/07	ADO Den Haag Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-3	–	–	L
15/07	KSK Heist Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
11/07	Sporting Hasselt Club Friendly List	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
04/07	Rupel Boom FC Club Friendly List	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
24/05	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
21/05	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-1	2-2	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charleroi win (45%). Probabilities: Charleroi 45%, draw 29%, KV Mechelen 26%.

How many goals are expected in Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Charleroi 1.47 · KV Mechelen 1.06), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Charleroi vs KV Mechelen?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.