Football · Belgium First Division A · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Charleroi vs Union Saint Gilloise

Team pages: Charleroi · Union Saint Gilloise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Charleroi1.38

Union Saint Gilloise1.25

1X2

39% 29% 33%

Charleroi Draw Union Saint Gilloise

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Charleroi 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Union Saint Gilloise 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Charleroi 0–2–4 Union Saint Gilloise (6 last)

Union Saint Gilloise4-1Charleroi
Charleroi0-0Union Saint Gilloise
Charleroi1-1Union Saint Gilloise
Union Saint Gilloise3-1Charleroi
Charleroi1-2Union Saint Gilloise
Union Saint Gilloise1-0Charleroi

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union Saint Gilloise: 4-2-0.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charleroi	Union Saint Gilloise
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.4	2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.9	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.97

Under 2.51.83

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:08

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.24 → 3.18▼	Pinn 3.18
X	3.44 → 3.55▲	Pinn 3.55
2	2.16 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.20

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:23	3.24	3.44	2.16
23:07 +1’	3.18▼	3.55▲	2.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Charleroi 0–2–4 Union Saint Gilloise

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/02/26 Belgium Cup	Union Saint Gilloise	4-1 HT 1-1	Charleroi
04/02/26 Belgium Cup	Charleroi	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Saint Gilloise
14/12/25 Belgium First Division A	Charleroi	1-1 HT 0-1	Union Saint Gilloise
18/10/25 Belgium First Division A	Union Saint Gilloise	3-1 HT 1-1	Charleroi
11/01/25 Belgium First Division A	Charleroi	1-2 HT 1-0	Union Saint Gilloise
16/08/24 Belgium First Division A	Union Saint Gilloise	1-0 HT 0-0	Charleroi

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charleroi	4	4	0	0	9	2	12
2	Club Brugge	4	3	0	1	8	2	9
3	Gent	3	3	0	0	6	2	9
4	Zulte-Waregem	4	2	2	0	8	3	8
5	Standard Liege	4	2	2	0	9	6	8
6	Union Saint Gilloise	3	2	1	0	8	1	7
7	Genk	4	2	1	1	12	8	7
8	Lommel	4	2	1	1	6	2	7
9	Antwerp	4	2	1	1	10	9	7
10	Sint-Truidense	3	1	2	0	8	5	5
11	Anderlecht	3	1	0	2	2	5	3
12	SK Beveren	4	1	0	3	2	10	3
13	Cercle Brugge	4	0	2	2	5	7	2
14	KV Mechelen	4	0	2	2	5	9	2
15	RAAL La Louviere	4	0	1	3	4	8	1
16	Westerlo	4	0	1	3	5	14	1
17	OH Leuven	3	0	0	3	2	8	0
18	KV Kortrijk	3	0	0	3	1	9	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charleroi	Union Saint Gilloise
KV Mechelen	2-0 W	3-0 W
Westerlo	0-1 L	5-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Union Saint Gilloise (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charleroi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	KV Kortrijk Belgium First Division A	1-1	3-1	5	2	W
22/08	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
16/08	Lommel Belgium First Division A	0-0	1-0	12	1	W
09/08	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
23/05	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-0	9	8	W
19/05	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	0-1	1-1	14	0	D
16/05	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
10/05	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
02/05	Genk Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
25/04	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-0	6	2	W

Union Saint Gilloise

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
15/08	Zulte-Waregem Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
08/08	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	1-1	5-1	5	3	W
24/05	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	4-0	5-1	4	5	W
21/05	Gent Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
17/05	Club Brugge Belgium First Division A	0-3	0-5	10	3	L
10/05	KV Mechelen Belgium First Division A	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
02/05	Sint-Truidense Belgium First Division A	0-0	1-2	1	7	L
26/04	Anderlecht Belgium First Division A	2-1	3-1	3	6	W
22/04	Gent Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-0	9	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charleroi vs Union Saint Gilloise?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charleroi win (39%). Probabilities: Charleroi 39%, draw 29%, Union Saint Gilloise 33%.

How many goals are expected in Charleroi vs Union Saint Gilloise?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Charleroi 1.38 · Union Saint Gilloise 1.25), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Union Saint Gilloise?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.