Football · Scotland League Two · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Stranraer vs FC Edinburgh

Team pages: Stranraer · FC Edinburgh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Stranraer1.78

FC Edinburgh1.43

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Stranraer Draw FC Edinburgh

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Stranraer 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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FC Edinburgh 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Stranraer 1–2–3 FC Edinburgh (6 last)

Stranraer0-2FC Edinburgh
FC Edinburgh4-1Stranraer
Stranraer1-1FC Edinburgh
FC Edinburgh1-3Stranraer
Stranraer1-2FC Edinburgh
FC Edinburgh0-0Stranraer

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stranraer 1544 · FC Edinburgh 1545

	Stranraer	Draw	FC Edinburgh
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Edinburgh: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stranraer	FC Edinburgh
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.9	2.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	1.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7.8	1.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:46 +7’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Stranraer 1–2–3 FC Edinburgh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/07/26 Scotland League Cup	Stranraer	0-2 HT 0-2	FC Edinburgh
07/03/26 Scotland League Two	FC Edinburgh	4-1 HT 2-1	Stranraer
03/01/26 Scotland League Two	Stranraer	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Edinburgh
18/10/25 Scotland League Two	FC Edinburgh	1-3 HT 1-2	Stranraer
09/08/25 Scotland League Two	Stranraer	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Edinburgh
19/07/25 Scotland League Cup	FC Edinburgh	0-0 HT 0-0	Stranraer

Standings · Scotland League Two

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Clyde	8	5	2	1	19	10	17
2	Stranraer	8	5	1	2	17	8	16
3	Spartans	8	3	3	2	19	15	12
4	Elgin	8	3	2	3	19	14	11
5	Forfar	8	3	2	3	8	13	11
6	FC Edinburgh	8	4	2	2	19	15	9
7	Annan Athletic	8	3	0	5	9	10	9
8	Dumbarton	8	3	0	5	8	14	9
9	Kelty Hearts	8	3	0	5	11	18	9
10	Stirling	8	1	2	5	10	22	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stranraer	FC Edinburgh
Elgin	5-1 W	0-5 L
Dumbarton	3-1 W	3-0 W
Forfar	3-0 W	1-1 D
Kelty Hearts	2-0 W	3-1 W
Stirling	2-2 D	7-3 W
Spartans	1-0 W	2-2 D
Annan Athletic	0-1 L	1-0 W
Clyde	1-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Edinburgh (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stranraer

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Elgin Scotland League Two	3-1	5-1	5	3	W
12/09	Dumbarton Scotland League Two	0-1	3-1	9	3	W
05/09	Forfar Scotland League Two	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
29/08	Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two	2-0	2-0	6	5	W
22/08	Stirling Scotland League Two	2-0	2-2	8	5	D
15/08	Spartans Scotland League Two	0-0	1-0	10	5	W
08/08	Annan Athletic Scotland League Two	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
01/08	Clyde Scotland League Two	1-3	1-3	7	3	L
02/05	Elgin Scotland League Two	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
25/04	Stirling Scotland League Two	0-1	1-1	13	3	D

FC Edinburgh

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two	3-0	3-1	2	6	W
12/09	Stirling Scotland League Two	5-0	7-3	5	0	W
05/09	Clyde Scotland League Two	1-0	2-3	6	6	L
28/08	Forfar Scotland League Two	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
22/08	Annan Athletic Scotland League Two	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
15/08	Dumbarton Scotland League Two	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
08/08	Spartans Scotland League Two	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
01/08	Elgin Scotland League Two	0-3	0-5	3	4	L
02/05	Dumbarton Scotland League Two	4-0	5-0	–	–	W
25/04	Forfar Scotland League Two	0-2	0-4	2	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stranraer vs FC Edinburgh?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Stranraer win (45%). Probabilities: Stranraer 45%, draw 25%, FC Edinburgh 30%.

How many goals are expected in Stranraer vs FC Edinburgh?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Stranraer 1.78 · FC Edinburgh 1.43), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Stranraer vs FC Edinburgh?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.