Football · Scotland League Two · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: FC Edinburgh vs Dumbarton

Team pages: FC Edinburgh · Dumbarton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

FC Edinburgh2.04

Dumbarton1.44

1X2

50% 24% 26%

FC Edinburgh Draw Dumbarton

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Edinburgh 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLWWDLD

Dumbarton 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWWLD

Head-to-head

FC Edinburgh 5–1–0 Dumbarton (6 last)

Dumbarton0-3FC Edinburgh
FC Edinburgh5-0Dumbarton
Dumbarton1-2FC Edinburgh
FC Edinburgh4-3Dumbarton
Dumbarton1-2FC Edinburgh
Dumbarton1-1FC Edinburgh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Edinburgh 1532 · Dumbarton 1474

	FC Edinburgh	Draw	Dumbarton
Our model	50%	23%	26%
Market	50%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Edinburgh (rating 1532 vs 1474).
H2H favours FC Edinburgh: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Edinburgh	Dumbarton
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.1	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	1.4 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:39 +2’	1.80	3.60	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Edinburgh 5–1–0 Dumbarton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Scotland League Two	Dumbarton	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Edinburgh
02/05/26 Scotland League Two	FC Edinburgh	5-0 HT 4-0	Dumbarton
31/01/26 Scotland League Two	Dumbarton	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Edinburgh
06/12/25 Scotland League Two	FC Edinburgh	4-3 HT 3-0	Dumbarton
30/08/25 Scotland League Two	Dumbarton	1-2 HT 0-2	FC Edinburgh
07/05/22 Scotland League One Play-Offs	Dumbarton	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Edinburgh

Standings · Scotland League Two

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Stranraer	11	7	2	2	25	9	23
2	Clyde	11	7	2	2	27	18	23
3	Elgin	11	5	3	3	27	17	18
4	Spartans	11	4	3	4	22	20	15
5	Kelty Hearts	11	5	0	6	16	21	15
6	Dumbarton	11	4	1	6	12	18	13
7	Stirling	11	3	3	5	14	24	12
8	FC Edinburgh	11	4	4	3	20	18	11
9	Forfar	11	3	2	6	11	19	11
10	Annan Athletic	11	3	0	8	11	21	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Edinburgh	Dumbarton
Elgin	0-0 D	2-1 W
Spartans	1-3 L	3-0 W
Stranraer	0-0 D	1-3 L
Kelty Hearts	3-1 W	1-3 L
Stirling	7-3 W	1-1 D
Clyde	2-3 L	1-2 L
Forfar	1-1 D	2-1 W
Annan Athletic	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Edinburgh (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Edinburgh

DWWDLWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Elgin Scotland League Two	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
10/10	Spartans Scotland League Two	1-1	1-3	2	2	L
03/10	Stranraer Scotland League Two	0-0	0-0	0	8	D
19/09	Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two	3-0	3-1	2	6	W
12/09	Stirling Scotland League Two	5-0	7-3	5	0	W
05/09	Clyde Scotland League Two	1-0	2-3	6	6	L
28/08	Forfar Scotland League Two	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
22/08	Annan Athletic Scotland League Two	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
15/08	Dumbarton Scotland League Two	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
08/08	Spartans Scotland League Two	1-0	2-2	4	8	D

Dumbarton

WLLLWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Stirling Scotland League Two	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
10/10	Clyde Scotland League Two	0-2	1-2	1	5	L
03/10	Forfar Scotland League Two	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
19/09	Spartans Scotland League Two	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
12/09	Stranraer Scotland League Two	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
05/09	Elgin Scotland League Two	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
29/08	Annan Athletic Scotland League Two	0-0	0-2	0	3	L
22/08	Kelty Hearts Scotland League Two	1-2	1-3	4	4	L
15/08	FC Edinburgh Scotland League Two	0-2	0-3	8	3	L
08/08	Clyde Scotland League Two	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Edinburgh vs Dumbarton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Edinburgh win (50%). Probabilities: FC Edinburgh 50%, draw 24%, Dumbarton 26%.

How many goals are expected in FC Edinburgh vs Dumbarton?

The model expects 3.48 goals (FC Edinburgh 2.04 · Dumbarton 1.44), with a 58% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Edinburgh vs Dumbarton?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.