Football · Switzerland Challenge League · 24/07, 20:15

Prediction: Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Winterthur1.95

Yverdon Sport FC1.65

1X2

44% 24% 32%

Winterthur Draw Yverdon Sport FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Winterthur 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Yverdon Sport FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Winterthur 1–3–2 Yverdon Sport FC (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Winterthur 1463 · Yverdon Sport FC 1528

	Winterthur	Draw	Yverdon Sport FC
Our model	44%	23%	32%
Market	43%	25%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yverdon Sport FC (rating 1463 vs 1528).
H2H favours Yverdon Sport FC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Winterthur	Yverdon Sport FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.16
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.63
2	2.80 → 2.90▲	Pinn 3.05 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:45 +25’	2.10	3.75	2.80
20:07 +8’	2.10	3.60▼	2.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:13	2.14	3.58	3.02
20:15	2.16▲	3.63▲	3.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Winterthur 1–3–2 Yverdon Sport FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/25 Switzerland Super League	Winterthur	2-2 HT 1-2	Yverdon Sport FC
08/03/25 Switzerland Super League	Yverdon Sport FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Winterthur
02/02/25 Switzerland Super League	Yverdon Sport FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Winterthur
04/08/24 Switzerland Super League	Winterthur	0-0 HT 0-0	Yverdon Sport FC
03/03/24 Switzerland Super League	Winterthur	2-1 HT 1-0	Yverdon Sport FC
28/10/23 Switzerland Super League	Yverdon Sport FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Winterthur

Standings · Switzerland Challenge League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Etoile Carouge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aarau	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Rapperswil-Jona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stade Nyonnais	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wil 1900	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Winterthur	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Neuchatel Xamax	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kriens	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yverdon Sport FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Winterthur	Yverdon Sport FC
Basel	2-2 D	3-0 W
FC Lausanne-Sport	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Winterthur

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Union Berlin Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
14/07	SC Bruhl Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	1	0	D
11/07	Basel Club Friendly List	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
04/07	Lucerne Europe Friendlies	2-2	2-3	4	0	L
01/07	St Gallen Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
27/06	Pfaffikon Club Friendly List	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
16/05	Lucerne Switzerland Super League	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
12/05	Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League	2-0	2-3	6	6	L
09/05	FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
02/05	FC Zurich Switzerland Super League	1-1	2-2	6	7	D

Yverdon Sport FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	FC Lausanne-Sport Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-3	8	2	L
12/07	FC Sion Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
08/07	Basel Club Friendly List	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
03/07	Biel Bienne Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
15/05	Aarau Switzerland Challenge League	1-2	2-2	0	4	D
11/05	FC Rapperswil-Jona Switzerland Challenge League	0-0	3-1	8	4	W
08/05	Wil 1900 Switzerland Challenge League	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
03/05	Etoile Carouge Switzerland Challenge League	2-2	3-5	3	4	L
26/04	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Switzerland Challenge League	2-0	3-0	4	6	W
22/04	Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League	1-0	2-2	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Winterthur win (44%). Probabilities: Winterthur 44%, draw 24%, Yverdon Sport FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport FC?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Winterthur 1.95 · Yverdon Sport FC 1.65), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Winterthur vs Yverdon Sport FC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.