Football · Switzerland Challenge League · 24/07, 20:15
Prediction: Etoile Carouge vs Aarau
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.35Total
Etoile Carouge1.57
Aarau1.78
1X2
Etoile Carouge
Draw
Aarau
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Etoile Carouge
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Aarau
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Etoile Carouge
1–1–4
Aarau
(6 last)
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aarau (rating 1447 vs 1534).
- H2H favours Aarau: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Etoile Carouge | Aarau | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.2 | 1.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/33/44% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.2 | 2.6 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Etoile Carouge 1–1–4 Aarau
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/26 Switzerland Challenge League | Aarau | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Etoile Carouge |
| 06/03/26 Switzerland Challenge League | Etoile Carouge | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Aarau |
| 12/12/25 Switzerland Challenge League | Aarau | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Etoile Carouge |
| 26/09/25 Switzerland Challenge League | Etoile Carouge | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Aarau |
| 16/05/25 Switzerland Challenge League | Etoile Carouge | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Aarau |
| 28/03/25 Switzerland Challenge League | Aarau | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Etoile Carouge |
Standings · Switzerland Challenge League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Etoile Carouge | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Aarau | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Rapperswil-Jona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stade Nyonnais | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Wil 1900 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Winterthur | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Neuchatel Xamax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kriens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Yverdon Sport FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Etoile Carouge | Aarau |
|---|---|---|
| Neuchatel Xamax | 0-3 L | 3-1 W |
| FC Vaduz | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Yverdon Sport FC | 5-3 W | 2-2 D |
| Wil 1900 | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Aarau (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Etoile Carouge
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | FC Lausanne-Sport Club Friendly List |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | FC Sion Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-7 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 15/05 | AC Bellinzona Switzerland Challenge League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 11/05 | Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | FC Vaduz Switzerland Challenge League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League |
2-2 | 5-3 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 24/04 | FC Rapperswil-Jona Switzerland Challenge League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | Wil 1900 Switzerland Challenge League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 10/04 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Switzerland Challenge League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 07/04 | Aarau Switzerland Challenge League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 12 | W |
Aarau
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Austria Lustenau Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 30/06 | St Gallen II Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 21/05 | Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League Play-Offs |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 18/05 | Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 15/05 | Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 11/05 | FC Vaduz Switzerland Challenge League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 08/05 | Stade Nyonnais Switzerland Challenge League |
5-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 01/05 | Neuchatel Xamax Switzerland Challenge League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Wil 1900 Switzerland Challenge League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/04 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Switzerland Challenge League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Etoile Carouge vs Aarau?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Aarau win (42%). Probabilities: Etoile Carouge 33%, draw 25%, Aarau 42%.
How many goals are expected in Etoile Carouge vs Aarau?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Etoile Carouge 1.57 · Aarau 1.78), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Etoile Carouge vs Aarau?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.