Football · Switzerland Challenge League · 24/07, 19:30

Prediction: Neuchatel Xamax vs Kriens

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

Neuchatel Xamax2.26

Kriens1.38

1X2

56% 23% 22%

Neuchatel Xamax Draw Kriens

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Neuchatel Xamax 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLWWLLLW

Kriens 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWWLWD

Head-to-head

Neuchatel Xamax 4–1–1 Kriens (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Neuchatel Xamax 1498 · Kriens 1557

	Neuchatel Xamax	Draw	Kriens
Our model	56%	22%	22%
Market	55%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kriens (rating 1498 vs 1557).
H2H favours Neuchatel Xamax: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Neuchatel Xamax	Kriens
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.9	2.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	60/0/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	2.7 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.90

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 19:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.47 ★
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.57

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:05 +3’	1.65	3.90	4.33
18:02 +12’	1.65	4.10▲	4.10▼
19:07 +6’	1.65	3.90▼	4.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:08	1.63	4.07	4.44
17:10	1.59▼	4.41▲	4.55▲
19:13	1.58▼	4.47▲	4.57▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Neuchatel Xamax 4–1–1 Kriens

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/04/22 Switzerland Challenge League	Kriens	0-5 HT 0-2	Neuchatel Xamax
25/02/22 Switzerland Challenge League	Neuchatel Xamax	2-1 HT 2-1	Kriens
20/11/21 Switzerland Challenge League	Kriens	0-1 HT 0-1	Neuchatel Xamax
06/08/21 Switzerland Challenge League	Neuchatel Xamax	4-0 HT 1-0	Kriens
20/04/21 Switzerland Challenge League	Neuchatel Xamax	0-3 HT 0-2	Kriens
26/02/21 Switzerland Challenge League	Kriens	1-1 HT 0-0	Neuchatel Xamax

Standings · Switzerland Challenge League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Etoile Carouge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aarau	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Rapperswil-Jona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stade Nyonnais	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wil 1900	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Winterthur	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Neuchatel Xamax	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kriens	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yverdon Sport FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Neuchatel Xamax

LDWLWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	FC Lausanne-Sport Europe Friendlies	0-1	2-1	3	3	W
01/07	FC Sion Europe Friendlies	1-2	2-4	5	1	L
27/06	Lugano Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
15/05	Stade Lausanne-Ouchy Switzerland Challenge League	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
11/05	Etoile Carouge Switzerland Challenge League	2-0	3-0	7	1	W
08/05	FC Rapperswil-Jona Switzerland Challenge League	0-2	3-2	8	4	W
01/05	Aarau Switzerland Challenge League	0-1	1-3	5	5	L
26/04	AC Bellinzona Switzerland Challenge League	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
22/04	Yverdon Sport FC Switzerland Challenge League	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
17/04	Young Boys Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	2	0	L

Kriens

WWDLWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Biel Bienne Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
04/07	FC Zurich Europe Friendlies	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
27/06	FC Vaduz Club Friendly List	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
30/05	Bavois Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-0	–	–	W
16/05	FC Paradiso Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	4-0	–	–	W
09/05	Basel II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-3	–	–	L
02/05	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	2-2	11	11	D
25/04	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
18/04	Lucerne II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Neuchatel Xamax vs Kriens?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Neuchatel Xamax win (56%). Probabilities: Neuchatel Xamax 56%, draw 23%, Kriens 22%.

How many goals are expected in Neuchatel Xamax vs Kriens?

The model expects 3.64 goals (Neuchatel Xamax 2.26 · Kriens 1.38), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Neuchatel Xamax vs Kriens?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.