Football · Switzerland Super League · 13/09, 16:30
Prediction: Lucerne vs Basel
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.56Total
Lucerne2.23
Basel1.33
1X2
Lucerne
Draw
Basel
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Lucerne
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Basel
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lucerne
2–1–3
Basel
(6 last)
- Lucerne4-2Basel
- Lucerne1-2Basel
- Basel1-2Lucerne
- Basel4-0Lucerne
- Lucerne1-1Basel
- Basel2-1Lucerne
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucerne (rating 1553 vs 1472).
- H2H favours Basel: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lucerne | Basel | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.6 | 1.3 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.8 | 2.1 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.4 | 5.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lucerne 2–1–3 Basel
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Switzerland Super League | Lucerne | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Basel |
| 17/12/25 Switzerland Super League | Lucerne | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Basel |
| 28/09/25 Switzerland Super League | Basel | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Lucerne |
| 24/05/25 Switzerland Super League | Basel | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Lucerne |
| 09/03/25 Switzerland Super League | Lucerne | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Basel |
| 06/02/25 Switzerland Super League | Basel | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Lucerne |
Standings · Switzerland Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugano | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Young Boys | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 14 | 15 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| 4 | St Gallen | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| 5 | Basel | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| 6 | Lucerne | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 9 |
| 7 | FC Thun | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 7 |
| 8 | FC Zurich | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 7 |
| 9 | FC Vaduz | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | 6 |
| 10 | FC Lausanne-Sport | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 6 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 5 |
| 12 | Servette | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lucerne | Basel |
|---|---|---|
| Young Boys | 3-3 D | 3-3 D |
| Servette | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| FC Lausanne-Sport | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| St Gallen | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| FC Sion | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| FC Thun | 1-3 L | 4-2 W |
| FC Zurich | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Basel (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucerne
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Young Boys Switzerland Super League |
0-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 02/09 | FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 29/08 | Servette Switzerland Super League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 22/08 | FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | St Gallen Switzerland Super League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 02/08 | FC Sion Switzerland Super League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | FC Thun Switzerland Super League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 12 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Winterthur Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/05 | FC Zurich Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Servette Switzerland Super League |
0-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 4 | D |
Basel
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Lugano Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 03/09 | FC Sion Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Young Boys Switzerland Super League |
2-3 | 3-3 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | FC Zurich Switzerland Super League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 11 | W |
| 09/08 | FC Thun Switzerland Super League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 25/07 | Servette Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Lugano Switzerland Super League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | St Gallen Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 10 | 9 | L |
| 10/05 | Young Boys Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucerne vs Basel?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lucerne win (57%). Probabilities: Lucerne 57%, draw 22%, Basel 21%.
How many goals are expected in Lucerne vs Basel?
The model expects 3.56 goals (Lucerne 2.23 · Basel 1.33), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Lucerne vs Basel?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.