Football · Switzerland Super League · 19/09, 20:30

Prediction: FC Sion vs FC Zurich

Team pages: FC Sion · FC Zurich

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

FC Sion2.5

FC Zurich1.19

1X2

65% 20% 15%

FC Sion Draw FC Zurich

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Sion 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWLWWW

FC Zurich 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLWLDW

Head-to-head

FC Sion 4–1–1 FC Zurich (6 last)

FC Zurich1-2FC Sion
FC Sion2-2FC Zurich
FC Zurich2-3FC Sion
FC Sion2-1FC Zurich
FC Sion2-1FC Zurich
FC Sion0-2FC Zurich

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Sion 1609 · FC Zurich 1460

	FC Sion	Draw	FC Zurich
Our model	65%	19%	16%
Market	64%	21%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Sion (rating 1609 vs 1460).
H2H favours FC Sion: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Sion	FC Zurich
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.6	1.3 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.9	2.1 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.50

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Pinn 1.49 ★
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.54
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +15’	1.44	4.50	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:11 +46’	1.49	4.54	6.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Sion 4–1–1 FC Zurich

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Switzerland Super League	FC Zurich	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Sion
23/11/25 Switzerland Super League	FC Sion	2-2 HT 2-1	FC Zurich
25/07/25 Switzerland Super League	FC Zurich	2-3 HT 1-0	FC Sion
04/05/25 Switzerland Super League	FC Sion	2-1 HT 2-1	FC Zurich
15/02/25 Switzerland Super League	FC Sion	2-1 HT 2-1	FC Zurich
30/10/24 Switzerland Super League	FC Sion	0-2 HT 0-0	FC Zurich

Standings · Switzerland Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugano	7	6	1	0	19	6	19
2	Young Boys	8	4	4	0	28	16	16
3	FC Sion	7	5	0	2	17	11	15
4	Basel	8	4	1	3	16	14	13
5	St Gallen	7	3	1	3	12	14	10
6	FC Zurich	8	3	1	4	13	19	10
7	Lucerne	8	2	3	3	12	17	9
8	Grasshoppers	7	2	2	3	10	14	8
9	Servette	7	2	1	4	5	8	7
10	FC Thun	7	2	1	4	11	18	7
11	FC Vaduz	8	2	0	6	17	19	6
12	FC Lausanne-Sport	8	1	3	4	7	11	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Sion	FC Zurich
St Gallen	3-0 W	1-2 L
Basel	2-1 W	1-2 L
Lugano	1-2 L	0-5 L
FC Vaduz	3-2 W	2-1 W
Lucerne	3-0 W	0-1 L
Young Boys	2-4 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FC Sion (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Sion

WDDLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	St Gallen Switzerland Super League	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
06/09	FC Thun Switzerland Super League	1-1	3-2	11	5	W
03/09	Basel Switzerland Super League	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
30/08	Lugano Switzerland Super League	0-1	1-2	8	3	L
09/08	FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League	1-2	3-2	6	6	W
02/08	Lucerne Switzerland Super League	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
26/07	Young Boys Switzerland Super League	1-2	2-4	4	3	L
17/05	Young Boys Switzerland Super League	1-1	3-3	5	3	D
14/05	Lugano Switzerland Super League	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
10/05	FC Thun Switzerland Super League	2-0	2-0	9	7	W

FC Zurich

LLLWLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League	0-1	2-1	7	2	W
05/09	Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League	0-0	2-2	4	8	D
01/09	Young Boys Switzerland Super League	1-2	2-4	3	5	L
29/08	FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League	0-1	3-2	6	5	W
22/08	Basel Switzerland Super League	1-0	1-2	4	11	L
09/08	Lugano Switzerland Super League	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
01/08	Servette Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
26/07	St Gallen Switzerland Super League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
16/05	Servette Switzerland Super League	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
12/05	Lucerne Switzerland Super League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Sion win (65%). Probabilities: FC Sion 65%, draw 20%, FC Zurich 15%.

How many goals are expected in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?

The model expects 3.69 goals (FC Sion 2.5 · FC Zurich 1.19), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Zurich?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.