Football · Finland Kolmonen · 09/09, 19:15

Prediction: LePa vs GrIFK Reservi

Team pages: LePa · GrIFK Reservi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.8Total

LePa2.27

GrIFK Reservi1.53

1X2

54% 21% 25%

LePa Draw GrIFK Reservi

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

LePa 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWWWWD

GrIFK Reservi 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWWWWL

Head-to-head

LePa 0–2 GrIFK Reservi (2 last)

GrIFK Reservi4-0LePa
LePa1-3GrIFK Reservi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · LePa 1557 · GrIFK Reservi 1531

	LePa	Draw	GrIFK Reservi
Our model	53%	22%	25%
Market	54%	21%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.8 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours GrIFK Reservi: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	LePa	GrIFK Reservi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.3	1.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	56/22/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.4	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.33

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.65▲	Bet365 1.65
X	4.75 → 4.33▼	Bet365 4.33
2	4.20 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:08 +38’	1.50	4.75	4.20
18:33 +5’	1.65▲	4.33▼	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · LePa 0–0–2 GrIFK Reservi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/06/26 Finland Kolmonen	GrIFK Reservi	4-0 HT 2-0	LePa
07/07/22 Finland Kolmonen	LePa	1-3 HT 0-2	GrIFK Reservi

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Southern, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	EIF Academy	18	12	4	2	61	24	40
2	ESPA	18	12	3	3	42	18	39
3	LePa	18	11	3	4	38	29	36
4	Poxyt	18	9	2	7	39	36	29
5	NuPS	18	7	5	6	30	24	26
6	Gilla FC	18	7	3	8	41	38	24
7	LoPa	18	7	3	8	29	31	24
8	GrIFK Reservi	18	7	2	9	33	38	23
9	PPJ/Ruoholahti	18	5	3	10	26	45	18
10	MPS	18	4	4	10	18	32	16
11	HooGee	18	5	1	12	32	48	16
12	EPS Reservi	18	3	5	10	24	50	14

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	LePa	GrIFK Reservi
EIF Academy	1-1 D	1-2 L
MPS	2-0 W	3-0 W
NuPS	1-0 W	0-3 L
HooGee	5-4 W	2-0 W
LoPa	3-2 W	2-1 W
Poxyt	5-1 W	3-1 W
Gilla FC	2-0 W	1-7 L
ESPA	0-2 L	4-2 W
EPS Reservi	1-2 L	0-2 L
PPJ/Ruoholahti	3-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 2 L	6 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: LePa (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

LePa

WLLWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
26/08	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
21/08	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
13/08	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-4	2	3	W
05/08	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
31/07	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	2-0	5-1	4	2	W
22/07	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	0-0	2-0	1	1	W
03/07	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
24/06	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
10/06	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-1	7	4	W

GrIFK Reservi

WWLLLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Gilla FC Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-7	0	4	L
30/08	HooGee Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
21/08	Poxyt Finland Kolmonen	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
16/08	PPJ/Ruoholahti Finland Kolmonen	0-1	3-2	3	1	W
06/08	MPS Finland Kolmonen	1-0	3-0	5	2	W
30/07	EIF Academy Finland Kolmonen	0-0	1-2	3	8	L
26/07	EPS Reservi Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
03/07	NuPS Finland Kolmonen	–	0-3	–	–	L
28/06	ESPA Finland Kolmonen	1-0	4-2	5	5	W
12/06	LoPa Finland Kolmonen	1-0	2-1	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in LePa vs GrIFK Reservi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a LePa win (54%). Probabilities: LePa 54%, draw 21%, GrIFK Reservi 25%.

How many goals are expected in LePa vs GrIFK Reservi?

The model expects 3.8 goals (LePa 2.27 · GrIFK Reservi 1.53), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in LePa vs GrIFK Reservi?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.