Football · Japan J-League · 06/09, 11:00

Prediction: Kashima Antlers vs Urawa Red Diamonds

Team pages: Kashima Antlers · Urawa Red Diamonds

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Kashima Antlers1.96

Urawa Red Diamonds1.19

1X2

54% 25% 21%

Kashima Antlers Draw Urawa Red Diamonds

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Kashima Antlers 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWWWWL

Urawa Red Diamonds 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWDLLLLWW

Head-to-head

Kashima Antlers 3–3–0 Urawa Red Diamonds (6 last)

Kashima Antlers1-0Urawa Red Diamonds
Urawa Red Diamonds2-3Kashima Antlers
Urawa Red Diamonds0-1Kashima Antlers
Kashima Antlers1-1Urawa Red Diamonds
Kashima Antlers0-0Urawa Red Diamonds
Urawa Red Diamonds2-2Kashima Antlers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kashima Antlers 1592 · Urawa Red Diamonds 1503

	Kashima Antlers	Draw	Urawa Red Diamonds
Our model	54%	24%	22%
Market	53%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kashima Antlers (rating 1592 vs 1503).
H2H favours Kashima Antlers: 3-3-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kashima Antlers	Urawa Red Diamonds
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.9	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	2.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.81
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.82 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
09:34 +9’	1.75	3.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:55	1.76	3.86	4.44
02:06	1.79▲	3.81▼	4.29▼
17:18	1.79	3.81	4.30▲
09:37 +1’	1.81▲	3.82▲	4.17▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kashima Antlers 3–3–0 Urawa Red Diamonds

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Japan J-League	Kashima Antlers	1-0 HT 0-0	Urawa Red Diamonds
28/02/26 Japan J-League	Urawa Red Diamonds	2-3 HT 2-1	Kashima Antlers
20/09/25 Japan J-League	Urawa Red Diamonds	0-1 HT 0-1	Kashima Antlers
16/03/25 Japan J-League	Kashima Antlers	1-1 HT 0-1	Urawa Red Diamonds
17/08/24 Japan J-League	Kashima Antlers	0-0 HT 0-0	Urawa Red Diamonds
22/06/24 Japan J-League	Urawa Red Diamonds	2-2 HT 0-2	Kashima Antlers

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	5	4	1	0	15	4	13
2	Kashiwa Reysol	5	4	0	1	10	6	12
3	Kashima Antlers	5	4	0	1	13	10	12
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	5	3	2	0	11	2	11
5	Vissel Kobe	5	3	1	1	6	3	10
6	Cerezo Osaka	5	3	0	2	5	5	9
7	Mito Hollyhock	5	2	2	1	10	7	8
8	FC Tokyo	5	2	2	1	9	8	8
9	Yokohama F-Marinos	5	2	1	2	8	8	7
10	Fagiano Okayama	5	2	1	2	5	5	7
11	Kawasaki Frontale	5	1	3	1	9	8	6
12	Gamba Osaka	5	1	3	1	8	9	6
13	Nagoya Grampus	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
14	Urawa Red Diamonds	5	2	0	3	11	15	6
15	Kyoto Sanga FC	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	5	1	1	3	2	4	4
17	V-Varen Nagasaki	5	1	1	3	6	11	4
18	Avispa Fukuoka	5	1	0	4	8	9	3
19	Tokyo Verdy	5	0	2	3	2	8	2
20	JEF Utd Chiba	5	0	0	5	3	15	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kashima Antlers	Urawa Red Diamonds
Mito Hollyhock	2-4 L	4-1 W
Avispa Fukuoka	3-2 W	3-2 W
Yokohama F-Marinos	4-3 W	3-2 W
FC Tokyo	1-0 W	0-0 D
JEF Utd Chiba	2-0 W	2-0 W
Machida Zelvia	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kashima Antlers (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kashima Antlers

DWDWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-2	2-4	4	2	L
29/08	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
22/08	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	1-1	3-2	2	2	W
15/08	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
07/08	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	1-2	4-3	9	1	W
23/05	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
17/05	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	0	3	W
10/05	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	3	0	D
06/05	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	0-0	3-0	6	2	W
03/05	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	0-0	1-1	7	4	D

Urawa Red Diamonds

WWWDLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/09	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	1-2	3-2	1	3	W
29/08	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	1-1	3-2	4	4	W
23/08	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
15/08	Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League	1-2	1-4	1	3	L
07/08	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	1-2	3-4	6	5	L
22/05	Machida Zelvia Japan J-League	0-1	0-1	3	1	L
16/05	FC Tokyo Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
09/05	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	1-0	4-1	7	3	W
06/05	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
02/05	JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League	1-0	2-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kashima Antlers vs Urawa Red Diamonds?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kashima Antlers win (54%). Probabilities: Kashima Antlers 54%, draw 25%, Urawa Red Diamonds 21%.

How many goals are expected in Kashima Antlers vs Urawa Red Diamonds?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Kashima Antlers 1.96 · Urawa Red Diamonds 1.19), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Kashima Antlers vs Urawa Red Diamonds?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.