Football · Japan J-League · 06/09, 11:00
Prediction: Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia
Team pages: Nagoya Grampus · Machida Zelvia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Nagoya Grampus1.24
Machida Zelvia1.57
1X2
Nagoya Grampus
Draw
Machida Zelvia
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Nagoya Grampus
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Machida Zelvia
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nagoya Grampus
0–2–4
Machida Zelvia
(6 last)
- Machida Zelvia0-0Nagoya Grampus
- Nagoya Grampus2-2Machida Zelvia
- Machida Zelvia3-1Nagoya Grampus
- Nagoya Grampus1-2Machida Zelvia
- Machida Zelvia1-0Nagoya Grampus
- Nagoya Grampus0-1Machida Zelvia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nagoya Grampus 1482 · Machida Zelvia 1604
| Nagoya Grampus | Draw | Machida Zelvia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Market | 28% | 28% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Machida Zelvia (rating 1482 vs 1604).
- H2H favours Machida Zelvia: 4-2-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nagoya Grampus | Machida Zelvia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2 | 2.1 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1 | 1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.7 | 1.7 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.2 | 1.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nagoya Grampus 0–2–4 Machida Zelvia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/26 Japan J-League Play-Offs | Machida Zelvia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nagoya Grampus |
| 30/05/26 Japan J-League Play-Offs | Nagoya Grampus | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Machida Zelvia |
| 30/11/25 Japan J-League | Machida Zelvia | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Nagoya Grampus |
| 02/03/25 Japan J-League | Nagoya Grampus | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Machida Zelvia |
| 06/07/24 Japan J-League | Machida Zelvia | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Nagoya Grampus |
| 02/03/24 Japan J-League | Nagoya Grampus | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Machida Zelvia |
Standings · Japan J-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Kashima Antlers | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 7 | Mito Hollyhock | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 8 |
| 8 | FC Tokyo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| 9 | Yokohama F-Marinos | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 11 | Kawasaki Frontale | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | Gamba Osaka | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 14 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 6 |
| 15 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 |
| 16 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 17 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| 19 | Tokyo Verdy | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| 20 | JEF Utd Chiba | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nagoya Grampus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Kashima Antlers Japan J-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 13 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima Japan J-League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League |
1-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/05 | Gamba Osaka Japan J-League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
Machida Zelvia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 29/08 | Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 23/08 | Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | FC Tokyo Japan J-League |
2-1 | 5-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Urawa Red Diamonds Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 13/05 | Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 10/05 | JEF Utd Chiba Japan J-League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 06/05 | Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Machida Zelvia win (43%). Probabilities: Nagoya Grampus 29%, draw 28%, Machida Zelvia 43%.
How many goals are expected in Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Nagoya Grampus 1.24 · Machida Zelvia 1.57), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.