Football · Japan J-League · 08/11, 06:00

Prediction: Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Team pages: Machida Zelvia · Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Machida Zelvia1.44

Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.1

1X2

44% 29% 28%

Machida Zelvia Draw Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Machida Zelvia 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDLWWWDD

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Machida Zelvia 0–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima (4 last)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-1Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia1-2Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-0Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia1-2Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 4-0-0.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Machida Zelvia	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.8	2.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.3	3.6 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.3	2.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.83

Under 2.52.01

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.93 → 2.93	Pinn 2.93
X	3.47 → 3.47	Pinn 3.47
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:59 +19’	2.93	3.47	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Machida Zelvia 0–0–4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/25 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2-1 HT 0-0	Machida Zelvia
16/02/25 Japan J-League	Machida Zelvia	1-2 HT 1-0	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
28/09/24 Japan J-League	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2-0 HT 2-0	Machida Zelvia
03/04/24 Japan J-League	Machida Zelvia	1-2 HT 0-1	Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Standings · Japan J-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Tokyo	13	9	3	1	31	8	30
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	13	9	2	2	32	10	29
3	Machida Zelvia	13	8	4	1	30	10	28
4	Kashiwa Reysol	13	9	1	3	29	19	28
5	Vissel Kobe	13	8	2	3	21	12	26
6	Kashima Antlers	13	7	2	4	29	22	23
7	Kawasaki Frontale	13	6	4	3	27	22	22
8	Yokohama F-Marinos	13	5	6	2	20	14	21
9	Urawa Red Diamonds	13	7	0	6	21	27	21
10	Fagiano Okayama	13	5	1	7	15	21	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	13	4	2	7	15	21	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	13	3	5	5	13	23	14
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	13	4	2	7	10	22	14
14	Kyoto Sanga FC	13	3	4	6	17	23	13
15	V-Varen Nagasaki	13	3	3	7	16	21	12
16	Gamba Osaka	13	2	6	5	14	21	12
17	Tokyo Verdy	13	2	5	6	11	22	11
18	JEF Utd Chiba	13	2	4	7	15	24	10
19	Mito Hollyhock	13	2	3	8	12	25	9
20	Avispa Fukuoka	13	2	1	10	13	24	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Machida Zelvia	Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Gamba Osaka	0-0 D	0-0 D
Shimizu S-Pulse	5-0 W	4-0 W
Avispa Fukuoka	3-0 W	1-0 W
Kyoto Sanga FC	1-0 W	3-0 W
Nagoya Grampus	3-1 W	3-0 W
Mito Hollyhock	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Machida Zelvia

DWWDLWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
24/10	Vissel Kobe Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
21/10	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	1-0	5-0	5	3	W
18/10	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	1-0	3-0	1	2	W
10/10	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
20/09	Kashiwa Reysol Japan J-League	1-0	2-4	1	4	L
12/09	Yokohama F-Marinos Japan J-League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/09	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
02/09	Kawasaki Frontale Japan J-League	0-0	2-1	6	0	W
29/08	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	1-1	1-1	2	1	D

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

DWLWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Mito Hollyhock Japan J-League	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
24/10	Shimizu S-Pulse Japan J-League	1-0	4-0	7	2	W
21/10	V-Varen Nagasaki Japan J-League	0-2	0-4	10	3	L
17/10	Kyoto Sanga FC Japan J-League	0-0	3-0	9	2	W
11/10	Tokyo Verdy Japan J-League	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
19/09	Avispa Fukuoka Japan J-League	0-0	1-0	16	6	W
12/09	Cerezo Osaka Japan J-League	3-0	6-1	9	1	W
06/09	Fagiano Okayama Japan J-League	1-2	2-3	8	3	L
02/09	Nagoya Grampus Japan J-League	0-0	3-0	2	3	W
29/08	Gamba Osaka Japan J-League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Machida Zelvia win (44%). Probabilities: Machida Zelvia 44%, draw 29%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 28%.

How many goals are expected in Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Machida Zelvia 1.44 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1.1), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.