Football · Japan J3-League · 15/08, 12:00
Prediction: Thespa Gunma vs Sagamihara
Team pages: Thespa Gunma · Sagamihara
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.1Total
Thespa Gunma1.7
Sagamihara1.4
1X2
Thespa Gunma
Draw
Sagamihara
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Thespa Gunma
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Sagamihara
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Thespa Gunma
1–4–1
Sagamihara
(6 last)
- Thespa Gunma7-2Sagamihara
- Sagamihara5-0Thespa Gunma
- Thespa Gunma1-1Sagamihara
- Sagamihara1-1Thespa Gunma
- Thespa Gunma1-1Sagamihara
- Thespa Gunma1-1Sagamihara
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Thespa Gunma 1472 · Sagamihara 1541
| Thespa Gunma | Draw | Sagamihara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 42% | 29% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sagamihara (rating 1472 vs 1541).
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Thespa Gunma | Sagamihara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.9 | 2.3 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Thespa Gunma 1–4–1 Sagamihara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League | Thespa Gunma | 7-2 HT 2-0 | Sagamihara |
| 04/03/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League | Sagamihara | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Thespa Gunma |
| 27/09/25 Japan J3-League | Thespa Gunma | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sagamihara |
| 13/04/25 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Thespa Gunma |
| 06/03/24 Japan J-League Cup | Thespa Gunma | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Sagamihara |
| 07/11/21 Japan J2-League | Thespa Gunma | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sagamihara |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehime FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Gifu | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Tochigi SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Parceiro Nagano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Kagoshima United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | FC Osaka | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Gainare Tottori | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Kochi United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Matsumoto Y FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Roasso Kumamoto | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Sagamihara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | FC Ryukyu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Fukushima Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Thespa Gunma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Nara Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 | Reilac Shiga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Thespa Gunma | Sagamihara |
|---|---|---|
| Blaublitz Akita | 1-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Tochigi City | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Montedio Yamagata | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Vanraure Hachinohe | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Yokohama FC | 3-1 W | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Thespa Gunma
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | FC Gifu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Sagamihara Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
2-0 | 7-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Blaublitz Akita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | Tochigi City Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 06/05 | Montedio Yamagata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 29/04 | Vegalta Sendai Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Yokohama FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
Sagamihara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 06/06 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Thespa Gunma Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
0-2 | 2-7 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | Montedio Yamagata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 06/05 | Blaublitz Akita Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Yokohama FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
3-0 | 3-3 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 29/04 | Tochigi City Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Shonan Bellmare Japan J2/J3 Centennial League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Thespa Gunma vs Sagamihara?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Thespa Gunma win (43%). Probabilities: Thespa Gunma 43%, draw 28%, Sagamihara 30%.
How many goals are expected in Thespa Gunma vs Sagamihara?
The model expects 3.1 goals (Thespa Gunma 1.7 · Sagamihara 1.4), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Thespa Gunma vs Sagamihara?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.