Football · Japan J3-League · 13/09, 11:00
Prediction: Matsumoto Y FC vs Sagamihara
Team pages: Matsumoto Y FC · Sagamihara
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Matsumoto Y FC1.51
Sagamihara1.29
1X2
Matsumoto Y FC
Draw
Sagamihara
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Matsumoto Y FC
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Sagamihara
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Matsumoto Y FC
4–2
Sagamihara
(6 last)
- Sagamihara1-0Matsumoto Y FC
- Matsumoto Y FC2-0Sagamihara
- Matsumoto Y FC3-2Sagamihara
- Sagamihara3-2Matsumoto Y FC
- Sagamihara0-2Matsumoto Y FC
- Matsumoto Y FC5-3Sagamihara
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matsumoto Y FC 1462 · Sagamihara 1489
| Matsumoto Y FC | Draw | Sagamihara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Matsumoto Y FC: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Matsumoto Y FC | Sagamihara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.5 | 3.3 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0 | 2.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Matsumoto Y FC 4–0–2 Sagamihara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/25 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Matsumoto Y FC |
| 23/03/25 Japan J3-League | Matsumoto Y FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sagamihara |
| 17/08/24 Japan J3-League | Matsumoto Y FC | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Sagamihara |
| 22/06/24 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Matsumoto Y FC |
| 28/10/23 Japan J3-League | Sagamihara | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Matsumoto Y FC |
| 03/06/23 Japan J3-League | Matsumoto Y FC | 5-3 HT 2-0 | Sagamihara |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehime FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | FC Gifu | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Reilac Shiga | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 9 |
| 5 | Sagamihara | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | Tochigi SC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 7 | FC Ryukyu | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | FC Osaka | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 10 | Parceiro Nagano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 11 | Gainare Tottori | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| 12 | Roasso Kumamoto | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 14 | Nara Club | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 5 |
| 15 | Fukushima Utd | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 4 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Y FC | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 17 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| 18 | Kochi United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 4 |
| 19 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| 20 | Thespa Gunma | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matsumoto Y FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 30/08 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 29/11 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 23/11 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
2-2 | 2-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/11 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 09/11 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 05/11 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
Sagamihara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 23/08 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 29/11 | Tochigi City Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 24/11 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 1 | L |
| 16/11 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 09/11 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/11 | Azul Claro Numazu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matsumoto Y FC vs Sagamihara?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Matsumoto Y FC win (41%). Probabilities: Matsumoto Y FC 41%, draw 28%, Sagamihara 31%.
How many goals are expected in Matsumoto Y FC vs Sagamihara?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Matsumoto Y FC 1.51 · Sagamihara 1.29), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Matsumoto Y FC vs Sagamihara?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.