Football · Japan J3-League · 13/09, 12:00
Prediction: Parceiro Nagano vs Tochigi SC
Team pages: Parceiro Nagano · Tochigi SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.28Total
Parceiro Nagano0.98
Tochigi SC1.3
1X2
Parceiro Nagano
Draw
Tochigi SC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Parceiro Nagano
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Tochigi SC
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Parceiro Nagano
1–3–2
Tochigi SC
(6 last)
- Tochigi SC0-0Parceiro Nagano
- Parceiro Nagano0-4Tochigi SC
- Tochigi SC1-0Parceiro Nagano
- Tochigi SC0-0Parceiro Nagano
- Parceiro Nagano0-0Tochigi SC
- Tochigi SC0-1Parceiro Nagano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Parceiro Nagano 1434 · Tochigi SC 1496
| Parceiro Nagano | Draw | Tochigi SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 31% | 43% |
| Market | 28% | 28% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tochigi SC (rating 1434 vs 1496).
- H2H favours Tochigi SC: 2-3-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Parceiro Nagano | Tochigi SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.9 | 1.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.7 | 1.9 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0.1 | 2.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Parceiro Nagano 1–3–2 Tochigi SC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League | Tochigi SC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Parceiro Nagano |
| 29/11/25 Japan J3-League | Parceiro Nagano | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Tochigi SC |
| 06/05/25 Japan J3-League | Tochigi SC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Parceiro Nagano |
| 26/11/17 Japan J3-League | Tochigi SC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Parceiro Nagano |
| 15/07/17 Japan J3-League | Parceiro Nagano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Tochigi SC |
| 13/11/16 Japan J3-League | Tochigi SC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Parceiro Nagano |
Standings · Japan J3-League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehime FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | FC Gifu | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Reilac Shiga | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 9 |
| 5 | Sagamihara | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | Tochigi SC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 7 | FC Ryukyu | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | FC Osaka | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 10 | Parceiro Nagano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 11 | Gainare Tottori | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| 12 | Roasso Kumamoto | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 14 | Nara Club | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 5 |
| 15 | Fukushima Utd | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 4 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Y FC | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 17 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| 18 | Kochi United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 4 |
| 19 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| 20 | Thespa Gunma | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 3 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Parceiro Nagano | Tochigi SC |
|---|---|---|
| Roasso Kumamoto | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Kochi United | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Parceiro Nagano
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Sagamihara Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Thespa Gunma Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 16/08 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 29/11 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 23/11 | Tochigi City Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 15/11 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 10/11 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 02/11 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
Tochigi SC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Kochi United Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 29/08 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 22/08 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Roasso Kumamoto Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 29/11 | Parceiro Nagano Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 23/11 | Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/11 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 09/11 | Kagoshima United Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 02/11 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Parceiro Nagano vs Tochigi SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Tochigi SC win (43%). Probabilities: Parceiro Nagano 27%, draw 29%, Tochigi SC 43%.
How many goals are expected in Parceiro Nagano vs Tochigi SC?
The model expects 2.28 goals (Parceiro Nagano 0.98 · Tochigi SC 1.3), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Parceiro Nagano vs Tochigi SC?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.