Football · Japan J3-League · 12/09, 11:00
Prediction: Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Gainare Tottori
Team pages: Giravanz Kitakyushu · Gainare Tottori
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.1Total
Giravanz Kitakyushu1.69
Gainare Tottori1.42
1X2
Giravanz Kitakyushu
Draw
Gainare Tottori
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Giravanz Kitakyushu
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Gainare Tottori
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Giravanz Kitakyushu
2–1–3
Gainare Tottori
(6 last)
- Gainare Tottori1-1Giravanz Kitakyushu
- Giravanz Kitakyushu1-3Gainare Tottori
- Gainare Tottori3-2Giravanz Kitakyushu
- Giravanz Kitakyushu1-2Gainare Tottori
- Gainare Tottori1-2Giravanz Kitakyushu
- Giravanz Kitakyushu1-0Gainare Tottori
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Giravanz Kitakyushu 1439 · Gainare Tottori 1561
| Giravanz Kitakyushu | Draw | Gainare Tottori | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gainare Tottori (rating 1439 vs 1561).
- H2H favours Gainare Tottori: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Giravanz Kitakyushu | Gainare Tottori | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2 | 1.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.4 | 1.7 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Giravanz Kitakyushu 2–1–3 Gainare Tottori
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League | Gainare Tottori | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Giravanz Kitakyushu |
| 07/02/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Gainare Tottori |
| 16/11/25 Japan J3-League | Gainare Tottori | 3-2 HT 3-0 | Giravanz Kitakyushu |
| 28/06/25 Japan J3-League | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Gainare Tottori |
| 06/07/24 Japan J3-League | Gainare Tottori | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Giravanz Kitakyushu |
| 02/06/24 Japan J3-League | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gainare Tottori |
Standings · Japan J3-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ehime FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Kagoshima United | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | FC Gifu | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Reilac Shiga | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 9 |
| 5 | Sagamihara | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | Tochigi SC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 7 | FC Ryukyu | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | FC Osaka | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 10 | Parceiro Nagano | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 11 | Gainare Tottori | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| 12 | Roasso Kumamoto | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 13 | Zweigen Kanazawa | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 14 | Nara Club | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 5 |
| 15 | Fukushima Utd | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 4 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Y FC | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 17 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| 18 | Kochi United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 4 |
| 19 | Giravanz Kitakyushu | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| 20 | Thespa Gunma | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Giravanz Kitakyushu | Gainare Tottori |
|---|---|---|
| Ehime FC | 2-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Tochigi SC | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Fukushima Utd | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Giravanz Kitakyushu (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Giravanz Kitakyushu
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 29/11 | Matsumoto Y FC Japan J3-League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 23/11 | Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 16/11 | Gainare Tottori Japan J3-League |
0-3 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 09/11 | Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/11 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | FC Ryukyu Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Gainare Tottori
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Renofa Yamaguchi Japan J3-League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Reilac Shiga Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | Fukushima Utd Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Ehime FC Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 0-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | FC Osaka Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 29/11 | Nara Club Japan J3-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 23/11 | Tochigi SC Japan J3-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 16/11 | Giravanz Kitakyushu Japan J3-League |
3-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 09/11 | FC Gifu Japan J3-League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 02/11 | Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J3-League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Gainare Tottori?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Giravanz Kitakyushu win (43%). Probabilities: Giravanz Kitakyushu 43%, draw 26%, Gainare Tottori 31%.
How many goals are expected in Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Gainare Tottori?
The model expects 3.1 goals (Giravanz Kitakyushu 1.69 · Gainare Tottori 1.42), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Giravanz Kitakyushu vs Gainare Tottori?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.