Football · Japan J2-League · 08/08, 12:00

Prediction: Omiya Ardija vs Albirex Niigata

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Omiya Ardija1.65

Albirex Niigata1.35

1X2

43% 27% 30%

Omiya Ardija Draw Albirex Niigata

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Omiya Ardija 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLLWLW

Albirex Niigata 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWDDLW

Head-to-head

Omiya Ardija 1–3–2 Albirex Niigata (6 last)

Albirex Niigata1-0Omiya Ardija
Omiya Ardija2-2Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata2-2Omiya Ardija
Omiya Ardija2-3Albirex Niigata
Omiya Ardija3-1Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata1-1Omiya Ardija

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Omiya Ardija 1496 · Albirex Niigata 1525

	Omiya Ardija	Draw	Albirex Niigata
Our model	43%	26%	30%
Market	43%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Albirex Niigata: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Omiya Ardija	Albirex Niigata
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.9	3.3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:30	2.15	3.30	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Omiya Ardija 1–3–2 Albirex Niigata

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/09/22 Japan J2-League	Albirex Niigata	1-0 HT 0-0	Omiya Ardija
26/02/22 Japan J2-League	Omiya Ardija	2-2 HT 1-0	Albirex Niigata
09/08/21 Japan J2-League	Albirex Niigata	2-2 HT 1-0	Omiya Ardija
05/05/21 Japan J2-League	Omiya Ardija	2-3 HT 1-1	Albirex Niigata
20/12/20 Japan J2-League	Omiya Ardija	3-1 HT 1-0	Albirex Niigata
08/08/20 Japan J2-League	Albirex Niigata	1-1 HT 1-1	Omiya Ardija

Standings · Japan J2-League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Albirex Niigata	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Blaublitz Akita	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Imabari	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fujieda MYFC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Iwaki FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jubilo Iwata	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kataller Toyama	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Montedio Yamagata	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oita	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Omiya Ardija	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sagan Tosu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shonan Bellmare	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tochigi City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tokushima Vortis	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vanraure Hachinohe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vegalta Sendai	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ventforet Kofu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yokohama FC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Omiya Ardija

LDLWWLLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/06	Kochi United Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
30/05	Yokohama FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
23/05	FC Gifu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
17/05	Parceiro Nagano Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
09/05	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-3	3-4	4	0	L
06/05	Iwaki FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	2-1	3-2	9	1	W
03/05	Fukushima Utd Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
29/04	Ventforet Kofu Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-2	1-2	8	4	L
25/04	Fujieda MYFC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
18/04	Jubilo Iwata Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-2	5	3	L

Albirex Niigata

LWWDWWDDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Montedio Yamagata World Club Friendlies	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
25/07	Montedio Yamagata World Club Friendlies	0-2	3-4	8	1	L
06/06	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
30/05	Kagoshima United Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
23/05	Ehime FC Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	2-1	9	2	W
16/05	Nara Club Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-0	2-1	10	2	W
10/05	Zweigen Kanazawa Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/05	Tokushima Vortis Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
03/05	Kamatamare Sanuki Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
29/04	Kataller Toyama Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	0-1	0-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Omiya Ardija vs Albirex Niigata?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Omiya Ardija win (43%). Probabilities: Omiya Ardija 43%, draw 27%, Albirex Niigata 30%.

How many goals are expected in Omiya Ardija vs Albirex Niigata?

The model expects 3 goals (Omiya Ardija 1.65 · Albirex Niigata 1.35), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Omiya Ardija vs Albirex Niigata?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.