Football · Japan J2-League · 03/11, 06:00

Prediction: Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu

Team pages: Shonan Bellmare · Sagan Tosu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Shonan Bellmare1.02

Sagan Tosu1.18

1X2

31% 30% 39%

Shonan Bellmare Draw Sagan Tosu

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Shonan Bellmare 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

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Sagan Tosu 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Shonan Bellmare 4–2 Sagan Tosu (6 last)

Sagan Tosu1-0Shonan Bellmare
Sagan Tosu1-2Shonan Bellmare
Shonan Bellmare2-1Sagan Tosu
Shonan Bellmare0-6Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu1-5Shonan Bellmare
Shonan Bellmare3-0Sagan Tosu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shonan Bellmare 1485 · Sagan Tosu 1473

	Shonan Bellmare	Draw	Sagan Tosu
Our model	30%	32%	38%
Market	32%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Shonan Bellmare: 4-0-2.
High corners: 14.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shonan Bellmare	Sagan Tosu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 7.2	3.2 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.20

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.94
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.38 ★
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:07 +5’	2.90	3.20	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:15 +18’	2.87	3.62	2.29
11:21 +7’	2.94▲	3.38▼	2.36▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shonan Bellmare 4–0–2 Sagan Tosu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Japan J2/J3 Centennial League	Sagan Tosu	1-0 HT 0-0	Shonan Bellmare
31/08/24 Japan J-League	Sagan Tosu	1-2 HT 0-1	Shonan Bellmare
06/05/24 Japan J-League	Shonan Bellmare	2-1 HT 1-1	Sagan Tosu
24/06/23 Japan J-League	Shonan Bellmare	0-6 HT 0-2	Sagan Tosu
18/02/23 Japan J-League	Sagan Tosu	1-5 HT 1-3	Shonan Bellmare
29/10/22 Japan J-League	Shonan Bellmare	3-0 HT 2-0	Sagan Tosu

Standings · Japan J2-League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	14	8	3	3	23	13	27
2	Albirex Niigata	14	8	2	4	21	24	26
3	Kataller Toyama	14	7	4	3	26	14	25
4	Yokohama FC	14	7	4	3	26	16	25
5	Omiya Ardija	14	6	6	2	25	17	24
6	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	14	6	5	3	21	16	23
7	Shonan Bellmare	14	5	7	2	15	13	22
8	Iwaki FC	14	6	2	6	23	20	20
9	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	14	6	2	6	17	19	20
10	Oita	14	4	7	3	17	12	19
11	Jubilo Iwata	14	5	4	5	16	15	19
12	Blaublitz Akita	14	4	5	5	15	15	17
13	Sagan Tosu	14	5	2	7	14	17	17
14	Tokushima Vortis	14	5	2	7	11	14	17
15	Fujieda MYFC	14	3	7	4	16	15	16
16	Montedio Yamagata	14	5	1	8	13	14	16
17	Vanraure Hachinohe	14	4	2	8	11	24	14
18	Tochigi City	14	3	3	8	21	25	12
19	FC Imabari	14	3	3	8	16	27	12
20	Ventforet Kofu	14	3	3	8	11	28	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shonan Bellmare	Sagan Tosu
Iwaki FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Albirex Niigata	1-1 D	1-2 L
Fujieda MYFC	1-1 D	1-0 W
FC Imabari	2-1 W	0-1 L
Blaublitz Akita	1-1 D	0-1 L
Vanraure Hachinohe	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Shonan Bellmare (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shonan Bellmare

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2-League	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
25/10	Tochigi City Japan J2-League	0-1	2-1	12	7	W
21/10	Iwaki FC Japan J2-League	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
17/10	Kataller Toyama Japan J2-League	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
11/10	Albirex Niigata Japan J2-League	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
03/10	Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League	0-0	1-1	8	5	D
26/09	FC Imabari Japan J2-League	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
19/09	Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League	0-1	1-1	12	1	D
12/09	Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2-League	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
05/09	Vegalta Sendai Japan J2-League	1-2	1-3	6	4	L

Sagan Tosu

WLLLLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Jubilo Iwata Japan J2-League	0-0	0-2	7	1	L
25/10	Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2-League	1-0	2-0	11	2	W
21/10	Albirex Niigata Japan J2-League	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
17/10	Omiya Ardija Japan J2-League	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
10/10	Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League	0-0	1-0	11	0	W
04/10	Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League	0-0	0-1	10	3	L
26/09	Montedio Yamagata Japan J2-League	0-2	0-2	5	1	L
19/09	Iwaki FC Japan J2-League	0-0	1-3	6	4	L
12/09	FC Imabari Japan J2-League	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
05/09	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League	0-0	2-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sagan Tosu win (39%). Probabilities: Shonan Bellmare 31%, draw 30%, Sagan Tosu 39%.

How many goals are expected in Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Shonan Bellmare 1.02 · Sagan Tosu 1.18), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.