Football · Japan J2-League · 03/11, 06:00
Prediction: Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Tochigi City
Team pages: Tegevajaro Miyazaki · Tochigi City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.05Total
Tegevajaro Miyazaki1.82
Tochigi City1.22
1X2
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Draw
Tochigi City
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Tochigi City
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
0–1–1
Tochigi City
(2 last)
- Tegevajaro Miyazaki1-1Tochigi City
- Tochigi City3-2Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1550 · Tochigi City 1411
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Draw | Tochigi City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tegevajaro Miyazaki (rating 1550 vs 1411).
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Tochigi City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4 | 1.5 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tegevajaro Miyazaki 0–1–1 Tochigi City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/25 Japan J3-League | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Tochigi City |
| 16/03/25 Japan J3-League | Tochigi City | 3-2 HT 3-0 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki |
Standings · Japan J2-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 24 | 26 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 14 | 25 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 25 |
| 5 | Omiya Ardija | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 17 | 24 |
| 6 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 16 | 23 |
| 7 | Shonan Bellmare | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 22 |
| 8 | Iwaki FC | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 20 |
| 9 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 19 | 20 |
| 10 | Oita | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 19 |
| 11 | Jubilo Iwata | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 19 |
| 12 | Blaublitz Akita | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 17 |
| 13 | Sagan Tosu | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 17 |
| 14 | Tokushima Vortis | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 17 |
| 15 | Fujieda MYFC | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 16 |
| 16 | Montedio Yamagata | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| 17 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 14 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | 12 |
| 19 | FC Imabari | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 27 | 12 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 12 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | Tochigi City |
|---|---|---|
| Kataller Toyama | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 3-2 W | 4-1 W |
| Fujieda MYFC | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Oita Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 25/10 | Montedio Yamagata Japan J2-League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 21/10 | Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 17/10 | Jubilo Iwata Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 11/10 | Kataller Toyama Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 04/10 | Omiya Ardija Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 26/09 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2-League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 18/09 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Sagan Tosu Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
Tochigi City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Iwaki FC Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 25/10 | Shonan Bellmare Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 21/10 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 17/10 | Yokohama FC Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 10/10 | Ventforet Kofu Japan J2-League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 03/10 | FC Imabari Japan J2-League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/09 | Tokushima Vortis Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Vegalta Sendai Japan J2-League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Kataller Toyama Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2-League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Tochigi City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tegevajaro Miyazaki win (50%). Probabilities: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 50%, draw 26%, Tochigi City 24%.
How many goals are expected in Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Tochigi City?
The model expects 3.05 goals (Tegevajaro Miyazaki 1.82 · Tochigi City 1.22), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs Tochigi City?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.