Football · Japan J2-League · 14/11, 06:00
Prediction: Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata
Team pages: Omiya Ardija · Montedio Yamagata
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Omiya Ardija1.86
Montedio Yamagata1
1X2
Omiya Ardija
Draw
Montedio Yamagata
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Omiya Ardija
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Montedio Yamagata
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Omiya Ardija
2–3–1
Montedio Yamagata
(6 last)
- Montedio Yamagata2-2Omiya Ardija
- Omiya Ardija2-1Montedio Yamagata
- Montedio Yamagata1-1Omiya Ardija
- Omiya Ardija2-1Montedio Yamagata
- Omiya Ardija1-1Montedio Yamagata
- Montedio Yamagata2-0Omiya Ardija
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Omiya Ardija (rating 1523 vs 1448).
- H2H favours Omiya Ardija: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Omiya Ardija | Montedio Yamagata | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.3 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.6 | 1.9 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Omiya Ardija 2–3–1 Montedio Yamagata
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/25 Japan J2-League | Montedio Yamagata | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Omiya Ardija |
| 15/02/25 Japan J2-League | Omiya Ardija | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Montedio Yamagata |
| 03/09/23 Japan J2-League | Montedio Yamagata | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Omiya Ardija |
| 08/04/23 Japan J2-League | Omiya Ardija | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Montedio Yamagata |
| 05/10/22 Japan J2-League | Omiya Ardija | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Montedio Yamagata |
| 23/04/22 Japan J2-League | Montedio Yamagata | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Omiya Ardija |
Standings · Japan J2-League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albirex Niigata | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 24 | 32 |
| 2 | Yokohama FC | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 17 | 31 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 15 | 31 |
| 4 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 17 | 29 |
| 5 | Omiya Ardija | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 18 | 27 |
| 6 | Vegalta Sendai | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 14 | 27 |
| 7 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 26 |
| 8 | Iwaki FC | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 26 | 22 | 23 |
| 9 | Oita | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 14 | 22 |
| 10 | Jubilo Iwata | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 22 |
| 11 | Shonan Bellmare | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 22 |
| 12 | Blaublitz Akita | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 20 |
| 13 | Sagan Tosu | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 19 | 20 |
| 14 | Montedio Yamagata | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 19 |
| 15 | Tokushima Vortis | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 17 |
| 16 | Fujieda MYFC | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 16 |
| 17 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 26 | 14 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 28 | 12 |
| 19 | FC Imabari | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 32 | 12 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 29 | 12 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Omiya Ardija | Montedio Yamagata |
|---|---|---|
| Iwaki FC | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Vegalta Sendai | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Kataller Toyama | 0-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Sagan Tosu | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Vanraure Hachinohe | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Fujieda MYFC | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Omiya Ardija (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Omiya Ardija
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Tochigi City Japan J2-League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 03/11 | Iwaki FC Japan J2-League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 31/10 | Vegalta Sendai Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 24/10 | Yokohama FC Japan J2-League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 21/10 | Kataller Toyama Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Sagan Tosu Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2-League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 04/10 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 26/09 | Ventforet Kofu Japan J2-League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
Montedio Yamagata
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Iwaki FC Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 03/11 | Tokushima Vortis Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 31/10 | Vanraure Hachinohe Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 25/10 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 21/10 | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 17/10 | Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 11/10 | Vegalta Sendai Japan J2-League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 03/10 | Oita Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 26/09 | Sagan Tosu Japan J2-League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 19/09 | Kataller Toyama Japan J2-League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Omiya Ardija win (57%). Probabilities: Omiya Ardija 57%, draw 25%, Montedio Yamagata 19%.
How many goals are expected in Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Omiya Ardija 1.86 · Montedio Yamagata 1), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Omiya Ardija vs Montedio Yamagata?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.