Football · Japan J2-League · 21/11, 06:00

Prediction: Tochigi City vs Albirex Niigata

Team pages: Tochigi City · Albirex Niigata

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Tochigi City1.49

Albirex Niigata1.66

1X2

34% 26% 41%

Tochigi City Draw Albirex Niigata

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Tochigi City 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLLLLW

Albirex Niigata 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLWWLWWL

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Albirex Niigata (rating 1426 vs 1506).
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tochigi City	Albirex Niigata
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.2	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	1.5 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.6	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.97

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:14

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.78 → 2.78	Pinn 2.78
X	3.76 → 3.76	Pinn 3.76
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:03 +11’	2.78	3.76	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Japan J2-League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	17	10	3	4	32	15	33
2	Omiya Ardija	17	9	6	2	32	19	33
3	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	17	9	5	3	29	18	32
4	Albirex Niigata	17	10	2	5	24	27	32
5	Yokohama FC	17	9	4	4	32	19	31
6	Kataller Toyama	17	9	4	4	31	18	31
7	Jubilo Iwata	17	7	5	5	21	17	26
8	Shonan Bellmare	17	6	8	3	18	15	26
9	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	17	8	2	7	23	21	26
10	Iwaki FC	17	7	3	7	28	24	24
11	Sagan Tosu	17	7	2	8	18	20	23
12	Oita	17	5	7	5	20	20	22
13	Blaublitz Akita	17	5	5	7	18	22	20
14	Tokushima Vortis	17	6	2	9	15	19	20
15	Fujieda MYFC	17	4	7	6	18	21	19
16	Montedio Yamagata	17	6	1	10	15	18	19
17	Tochigi City	17	4	3	10	27	32	15
18	Vanraure Hachinohe	17	4	3	10	13	28	15
19	FC Imabari	17	3	3	11	16	34	12
20	Ventforet Kofu	17	3	3	11	12	35	12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tochigi City	Albirex Niigata
Oita	6-1 W	1-5 L
Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0-3 L	1-3 L
Shonan Bellmare	1-2 L	1-1 D
Ventforet Kofu	1-2 L	1-0 W
FC Imabari	1-2 L	1-0 W
Tokushima Vortis	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Albirex Niigata (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tochigi City

LLLDDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Oita Japan J2-League	4-0	6-1	9	3	W
08/11	Omiya Ardija Japan J2-League	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
03/11	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League	0-2	0-3	4	1	L
31/10	Iwaki FC Japan J2-League	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
25/10	Shonan Bellmare Japan J2-League	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
21/10	Fujieda MYFC Japan J2-League	0-0	2-2	4	8	D
17/10	Yokohama FC Japan J2-League	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
10/10	Ventforet Kofu Japan J2-League	1-2	1-2	3	1	L
03/10	FC Imabari Japan J2-League	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
26/09	Tokushima Vortis Japan J2-League	0-1	0-3	2	3	L

Albirex Niigata

DWDLWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Tegevajaro Miyazaki Japan J2-League	1-1	1-3	2	5	L
07/11	FC Imabari Japan J2-League	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
03/11	Ventforet Kofu Japan J2-League	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
31/10	Kataller Toyama Japan J2-League	1-1	2-3	4	1	L
25/10	Vegalta Sendai Japan J2-League	1-1	2-1	4	7	W
21/10	Sagan Tosu Japan J2-League	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
17/10	Oita Japan J2-League	1-2	1-5	6	0	L
11/10	Shonan Bellmare Japan J2-League	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
03/10	Tokushima Vortis Japan J2-League	2-1	2-1	3	1	W
26/09	Blaublitz Akita Japan J2-League	1-1	2-2	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tochigi City vs Albirex Niigata?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Albirex Niigata win (41%). Probabilities: Tochigi City 34%, draw 26%, Albirex Niigata 41%.

How many goals are expected in Tochigi City vs Albirex Niigata?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Tochigi City 1.49 · Albirex Niigata 1.66), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tochigi City vs Albirex Niigata?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.